关键词: 农产品价格；宏观经济指标；向量误差修正模型；协整检验；因果检验

Abstract:

In order to study the effect of macroeconomic indicators on prices fluctuation of agricultural products and analyze the characteristics of price fluctuation of agricultural products under the impact of macroeconomic indicators, this paper discussed the mechanism of policy role. Econometric method was adopted to establish a vector error correction model (VEC), and on this basis, carried out pulse and variance analysis, so as to study the comprehansive effects of multiple macroeconomic indicators on price fluctuation of agricultural products. Results showed that cointegration relationship existed between the index of agricultural production price index and narrow money supply quantity index, social average wage index and inhabitant consumer price index, etc. macroeconomic indicators. Macroeconomic indicators of narrow money supply index, social average wage index and inhabitant consumer price index were Granger cause of agricultural production price index. The impact of macroeconomic indicators on price fluctuation of agricultural products was from strong to weak as follows in order: narrow money supply, inhabitant consumer price index and social average wage index.

Key words: price of agricultural products, macroeconomic indicator, vector error correction, cointegration test, causality test