关键词: 黄土高原；粮食产量；粮食结构；地膜覆盖；甘肃省

Abstract:

Taking the statistical data of 36 counties within the jurisdiction of the Loess Plateau of Gansu Province, this paper studied the changing characteristics of grain yield and crop structure from 1991-2012,  and the effect of yield of per unit area and crop structure on the total grain output. On these basis, the paper analyzed the regional grain demand and production capacity in 2030, put forward ways to increase grain production for meeting consumers demand. The results indicated that the total grain yield, yield of per unit area and sown area in 1991 at the Loess Plateau of Gansu Province showed an increasing trend in waving motion; the increase of total output coming from the yield increase of per unit area, and the yield increase of per unit area was mainly contributed by applying plastic film mulching technology, and expansion of corn and potato sown areas. According to forecasting, the grain requirement in the Loess Plateau of Gansu Province in 2030 will be 935.76×104 t, but its production capacity is only 645.48×104 t with self-sufficiency rate of only 68.98%. To solve the problem of grain deficiency, the area of plastic film mulching must be expand to 122×104 hm2, accounting for 79.9% of the total grain sown area; and the quantity of used plastic film should increase to 31 thousand ton. Thus, the average annual yield of per unit area could be increased by 1.76% and the goal of self-sufficient can be realized.

Key words: Loess Plateau, grain yield, crop structure, plastic film mulching, Gansu Province