基于Panel Nerlove模型的我国牛肉供给反应实证分析

doi:10.13304/j.nykjdb.2015.179

›› 2015, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (4): 150-156.DOI: 10.13304/j.nykjdb.2015.179

• 技术经济信息研究农业政策 • 上一篇下一篇

基于Panel Nerlove模型的我国牛肉供给反应实证分析

汪武静1,王明利1*,金白乙拉2,石自忠3,刘玉凤1

(1.中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所, 北京 100081|2.内蒙古通辽市科左中旗农业技术推广中心, 内蒙古通辽 029300|3.中国农业大学经济管理学院, 北京 100083)

收稿日期:2015-03-31 修回日期:2015-04-27 出版日期:2015-08-15 发布日期:2015-08-15
通讯作者: 王明利，研究员，博士生导师，主要从事畜牧业经济、技术经济研究。 E-mail:wangmingli@caas.cn
作者简介:汪武静|硕士研究生|主要从事畜牧业经济研究。E-mail:609766751@qq.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（71173220）；中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目（ASTIP-IAED-2015-01）资助。

Empirical Analysis of Beef Supply Response in China Based on Panel Nerlove Model

WANG Wu-jing1, WANG Ming-li1*, JIN Bai-yila2, SHI Zi-zhong3, LIU Yu-feng1

(1.Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081|2.Kezuozhongqi Agricultural Technology Promotion Center of Tongliao City Inner Mongolia, Inner Mongolia Tongliao 029300|3.College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China)

Received:2015-03-31 Revised:2015-04-27 Online:2015-08-15 Published:2015-08-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

从牛肉供给的角度出发，依据2000-2012年全国29个地区的数据，采用Panel Nerlove经典模型及扩展模型，对我国牛肉市场的供给反应进行分析。结果表明，牛肉的短期供给弹性为0.171，长期供给弹性为0.615，小于1，是缺乏弹性的畜产品；滞后一期牛肉产量、滞后二期牛肉产量、滞后一期牛肉价格、羊肉价格对牛肉产量都有显著的影响。剖析了我国牛肉价格缺乏弹性的原因，并且基于此结论，提出一些发展我国肉牛产业的建议：国家应该在贸易谈判过程中有意识的保护国内肉牛产业，重点要扶持能繁母牛的养殖，重视国内饲草资源的开发和利用。

关键词: 牛肉;供给反应;Panel Nerlove模型

Abstract:

From beef supply view point, this paper analyzed Chinas beef market supply response on the basis of Panel data from 2000-2012 in 29 regions, using classical Nerlove model and extended model. The results showed that the short-term elasticity of beef supply was 0.171 and long-term one was 0.615, both of them were less than 1, meaning inelastic supply. Besides, beef production of lagging one phase and two phase, beef price and mutton price of lagging one phase had significant impact on beef production. This paper mainly analyzed the reasons for inelastic price of beef supply; and based on this conclusion put forward suggestions for developing beef industry in China, including conciously protecting domestic beef industey during trading negotiations process, laying emphasis on supporting reproductive cow breeding, and development and utilization of domestic forage resources.

Key words: beef, supply response, Panel Nerlove model

中图分类号:

F326.3

汪武静1,王明利1*,金白乙拉2,石自忠3,刘玉凤1. 基于Panel Nerlove模型的我国牛肉供给反应实证分析[J]. , 2015, 17(4): 150-156.

WANG Wu-jing1, WANG Ming-li1*, JIN Bai-yila2, SHI Zi-zhong3, LIU Yu-feng1. Empirical Analysis of Beef Supply Response in China Based on Panel Nerlove Model[J]. , 2015, 17(4): 150-156.

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基于Panel Nerlove模型的我国牛肉供给反应实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Beef Supply Response in China Based on Panel Nerlove Model

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