关键词: 淡水养殖, 格局变化, 空间杜宾面板模型

Abstract: Under the double oppression of land resource degradation and population increase, freshwater aquaculture is expected to become one of the pillar industries to support the food supply of Chinese residents. Based on the panel data of provincial freshwater aquaculture from 2007-2014 in China, this paper explored the pattern changes in freshwater aquaculture area, using the overall Moran’sI index to investigate the spatial correlation of freshwater aquaculture zones, and analyzed the factors influencing the changes of industry structure through constructing spatial Durbin panel model. The results showed that: ①The freshwater aquaculture in China represents the characteristics of “South Hot North Cold”. The spatial correlation between provinces become more significant year by year. ②The input of freshwater aquaculture was increasing, aquaculture area was expanding, regional economic development level was improving. All these changes reflected the transformation of freshwater aquaculture in China from extensive operation to intensive management. ③Negative indirect effect of freshwater aquaculture area reflected that “Excessive Aquaculture” and environmental pollution would slow down the speed of freshwater aquaculture development. ④There was no contradiction between freshwater aquaculture development and urbanization process. Freshwater aquaculture could continue to provide stable freshwater products in the future and become an important guarantee for national food safety and security. Finally, this paper put forward policy suggestions from 3 aspects: rational planning of regional pattern for freshwater aquaculture, balancing investment of technology promotion funds between provinces, and strengthening supervision of water resources pollution.

Key words: freshwater aquaculture, pattern change, spatial Durbin panel model