关键词: 粮食和营养安全, 种子科技, 饲料粮转化效率, 误差修正模型

Abstract: The balance of feed grain supply and demand archieved by science and technology helps to ensure China food and nutrition security. This paper focused on seed and feed conversion technology and measured the long-term equilibrium coefficient of seed input-output efficiency and annual feed grain yield from 1981 to 2016 and the long-term equilibrium coefficient of feed conversion efficiency and annual livestock and poultry output from 1992 to 2016 in China by using error correction model. The results showed that when the seed input-output efficiency increased by 1, the annual increase in feed grain yield of rice, wheat, corn and soybean was 0.91×104, 127.33×104, 9.46×104  and 68.51×104 t, respectively, which substituted grain import volume from 2012 to 2017 with average increase of 447.71, 2.74, 39.39 and 108.14. When the feed grain conversion efficiency increased by 1, the annual output increase in pork, beef, mutton, chicken, eggs and milk were 748.69×104, 643.08×104, 148.30×104, 437.69×104, 606.33×104 and 241.89×104 t, respectively. The feed grain conversion efficiency of the layer and the cow still need to be improved by 1.74 and 12.13  to reach the 2020 nutrition program goal. The  deficiency intakes of protein, calcium, zinc and vitamin A for residents needed to be improved by 5.52  of the cattles feed grain conversion efficiency, 89.40  of the cows feed grain conversion efficiency, 3.10  of the cattles feed grain conversion efficiency and 14.80  of the layers feed grain conversion efficiency.

Key words: food and nutrition security, seed technology, feed grain conversion efficiency, error correction model