关键词: 最大熵模型, 小麦黄花叶病, 适生区, 黄淮海地区

Abstract: The scientific prediction of the suitable growing area of wheat yellow mosaic disease in HuangHuaiHai area is of great significance to control the spread of the disease and ensure wheat production. Based on the data of the distribution of wheat yellow mosaic disease and the environmental factors, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the suitable area of this disease, and the contribution rate and ROC curve of ecological factors were analyzed to explore the main ecological factors affecting wheat yellow mosaic disease. The results showed that AUC of the area under the ROC curve was 0.955, and the model was reliable. The precipitation of the driest month and the warmest month, the highest temperature, altitude, clay and the wettest month had important effects on the distribution of this disease. The suitable growing areas mainly distributed in existing areas (Weihai, Yantai, Qingdao, Weifang, Zibo, Jinan, Tai’an, Rizhao, Linyi, Jining, Zaozhuang, Pingdingshan, Zhumadian, Zhoukou, Kaifeng and Fuyang) and the predicted area (Laiwu, Heze, Xinyang, Shangqiu, Huainan, Huaibei, Suzhou, Xuzhou, Suqian Lianyungang and Bengbu). The predicted proper area was wide, so it was suggested to add yellow mosaic disease of wheat as a national agricultural phytosanitary pest, and set up epidemic detection points in highfitness areas, and strengthen field management according to main environmental factors.

Key words: maximum entropy model, wheat yellow mosaic disease, suitable distribution, HuangHuaihai region