关键词: 粮食生产能力, 区域差异, 变化特征, 成因

Abstract:

Grain production capacity is the key to stabilize regional grain supply and ensure national food security. As food production conditions change， the food production capacity of the country's three major functional food production zones continues to diverge， posing a potential threat to food security in the region. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces （autonomous regions and municipalities） from 2003 to 2020， the study first analyzes the changes and characteristics of grain production capacity in different regions of China from the perspective of per capita grain production and other factors using descriptive statistics， and then further empirically analyzes the causes of regional changes in grain production capacity based on a panel fixed-effects model. The study found that the grain production capacities of three major grain production functional areas showed a trend of polarization， the grain production capacity of non-main production areas tended to be lower， and the level of food security in the region was tight. There were regional differences in the influence of cultivated land area， regional economic development level， and mechanization level on grain production capacity. It was suggested that the main production areas should increase the protection of cultivated land， promote water-saving and other technologies to stabilize the regional grain production capacity； improve the grain support policies for non-main production areas， speed up the process of mechanization of weak links， and increase the enthusiasm for grain production in non-main production areas. Above results provided reference for improving regional grain production capacity and ensuring national food security.

Key words: grain production capacity, regional differences, changing characteristics, causes