基于InvaCost数据库评估全球入侵昆虫的经济成本

doi:10.13304/j.nykjdb.2023.0027

中国农业科技导报 ›› 2023, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (10): 137-143.DOI: 10.13304/j.nykjdb.2023.0027

• 动植物健康 • 上一篇

基于InvaCost数据库评估全球入侵昆虫的经济成本

范世奇¹(), 赵光华², 才琪³, 王朵¹, 周晓然⁴, 温玄烨¹()

^1.国家林业和草原局生物灾害防控中心，沈阳 110034
^2.山西师范大学生命科学学院，山西临汾 041004
^3.中国林业科学研究院生态保护与修复研究所，北京 100091
^4.北京市房山区林果科技服务中心，北京 102400

收稿日期:2023-01-10 接受日期:2023-02-21 出版日期:2023-10-15 发布日期:2023-10-27
通讯作者: 温玄烨
作者简介:范世奇E-mail：fanshiqi0125@163.com；
基金资助:
生物灾害防控中心优青项目(FKQX2022001);国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1400300)

Assessing of Economic Costs on Global Invasive Insects Based on InvaCost Database

Shiqi FAN¹(), Guanghua ZHAO², Qi CAI³, Duo WANG¹, Xiaoran ZHOU⁴, Xuanye WEN¹()

^1.Center for Biological Disaster Prevention and Control，National Forestry and Grassland Administration，Shenyang 110034
^2.College of Life Sciences，Shanxi Normal University，Linfen 041004
^3.Institute of Ecological Conservation and Restoration，Chinese Academy of Forestry，Beijing 100091，China
^4.Service Center of Timber and Fruit Trees Science and Technology of Fangshan District，Beijing 102400，China

Received:2023-01-10 Accepted:2023-02-21 Online:2023-10-15 Published:2023-10-27
Contact: Xuanye WEN

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为明确入侵昆虫的危害损失，以货币化形式评估全球入侵昆虫的经济成本，基于InvaCost数据库，对所有昆虫纲数据进行分析。分别统计1970—2017年保守经济成本、各国支出成本、管理与损失成本及主要昆虫种类，在此基础上利用最小二乘法、稳健回归和分位数回归3种模型预测2010—2019年的可能成本。结果表明，1970—2017年因昆虫入侵所产生的经济成本为5 004.38亿美元，年均104.26亿美元。美国是全球支出成本最高的国家；我国排名第二，约503.52亿美元（3 401.13亿人民币）。在所有昆虫种类中，伊蚊（Aedes spp.）花费的经济成本最高。模型预测21世纪10年代的可能经济成本为2 923.62~7 097.25亿美元，最高置信值为3 672.24亿美元。评估结果显示，在过去几十年中全球因入侵昆虫所产生的经济成本极大，但主动管理明显不足。

关键词: 入侵昆虫, 经济成本, InvaCost数据库, 伊蚊

Abstract:

To clarify the damage losses of invasive insects， the economic cost of global invasive insects were assessed in monetized form. InvaCost database was used to analyze all insecta data， and the conservative economic costs， expenditure costs， management and loss costs， and major invasive insect species from 1970 to 2017 were counted separately， based on which generalized least squares regression， robust regression， and quantile regression 3 models to predict the possible costs from 2010 to 2019. The results showed that the economic cost due to insect invasion from 1970 to 2017 was 500 438 million dollar， with an annual average of 10 426 million dollar. The United States had the highest spending cost in the world， and China ranked second about 50 352 million dollar （340 113 million yuan）， and the economic cost of Aedes spp. was the highest among all invasive insect species. The model predicted a possible economic cost of 292.362~709.725 billion dollar in the 21st century 10s， with a maximum confidence value of 367.224 billion dollar. The assessment showed that the global economic costs of invasive insects over the past few decades had been enormous， but proactive management was clearly lacking.

Key words: invasive insect, economic cost, InvaCost database, Aedes spp

中图分类号:

S413

范世奇, 赵光华, 才琪, 王朵, 周晓然, 温玄烨. 基于InvaCost数据库评估全球入侵昆虫的经济成本[J]. 中国农业科技导报, 2023, 25(10): 137-143.

Shiqi FAN, Guanghua ZHAO, Qi CAI, Duo WANG, Xiaoran ZHOU, Xuanye WEN. Assessing of Economic Costs on Global Invasive Insects Based on InvaCost Database[J]. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, 2023, 25(10): 137-143.

图/表 6

图1 1970—2017年全球入侵昆虫保守经济成本

Fig. 1 Conservative economic costs of invasive insects worldwide from 1970 to 2017

图2 各国入侵昆虫经济成本注：基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS（2016）1665号的标准地图制作，底图无修改。

Fig. 2 Economic cost of invasive insects in various countriesNote：The map is based on the standard map of GS（2016）1665 downloaded from the standard map service website of the Ministry of Natural Resources， and the base map is not modified.

图3 经济成本最高的入侵昆虫种类

Fig. 3 The invasive insects species with the highest economic costs

表1 各年代入侵昆虫的损失与管理成本

Table 1 Losses and management costs of invasive insects every decade

年份 Year	损失Damage		管理Management
年份 Year	总成本 Total cost/ （million dollar）	年均成本Annual cost/ （million dollar）	总成本 Total cost/ （million dollar）	年均成本Annual cost/（million dollar）
1970—1979	105.86	10.59	2 076.93	207.69
1980—1989	4 169.64	416.96	3 713.06	371.31
1990—1999	9 875.12	987.51	5 266.25	526.63
2000—2009	135 842.64	13 584.26	13 205.03	1 320.50
2010—2017	84 956.91	10 619.61	6 946.27	868.28

图4 入侵昆虫预测模型建模结果

Fig. 4 Invasive insect prediction modeling results

表2 模型均方根误差

Table 2 Model root mean square error evaluation

模型 Model	2010—2019年均成本 Average annual cost from 2010 to 2019/（million dollar）	均方根误差 RMSE
线性最小二乘法Ols. linear	22 475	0.516
二阶最小二乘法Ols. quadratic	15 170	0.550
线性稳健回归Robust. linear	36 722	0.498
二阶稳健回归Robust. quadratic	70 972	0.505
0.1分位数回归Quantile 0.1	826	0.966
0.5分位数回归Quantile 0.5	29 236	0.509
0.9分位数回归Quantile 0.9	152 693	0.844

参考文献 28

1	CUTHBERT R N, BARTLETT A C, TURBELIN A J, et al.. Economic costs of biological invasions in the United Kingdom [J]. NeoBiota, 2021, 67(7):299-328.
2	SEEBENS H, BACHER S, BLACKBURN T M, et al.. Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050 [J]. Global Change Biol., 2021, 27(5):970-982.
3	徐钦望,任利利,骆有庆.全球外来入侵生物与植物有害生物数据库的比较评价[J].生物安全学报,2021,30(3):157-165.
	XU Q W, REN L L, LUO Y Q. Comparative evaluation of databases of invasive alien species and plant pests in the world [J]. J. Biosafety, 2021, 30(3):157-165.
4	郭建洋,冼晓青,张桂芬,等.我国入侵昆虫研究进展[J].应用昆虫学报,2019,56(6):1186-1192.
	GUO J Y, XIAN X Q, ZHANG G F, et al.. Advances in research on invasive pest insects in China [J]. Chin. J. Appl. Entomol., 2019, 56(6):1186-1192.
5	WAN F H, JIANG M X, ZHAN A B. Biological Invasion and Its Management in China. Volume I [M]. Dordrecht: Springer Nature, 2017:3-15.
6	KUMSCHICK S, GAERTNER M, VILA M, et al.. Ecological impacts of alien species: quantification, scope, caveats, and recommendations [J]. BioScience, 2015, 65(1):55-63.
7	WILLIAMS F, ESCHEN R, HARRIS A, et al.. The economic cost of invasive non-native species to Great B ritain [J/OL]. Econ. Cost Invasion Non Natiive Species Great Britain, 2010, 11: 9206 [2022-12-15]. .
8	WARD D. The potential distribution of the red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), in New Zealand [J]. NZ Entomol., 2009, 32(1):67-75.
9	温玄烨,王越,姜璠,等.基于MaxEnt模型预测黄脊竹蝗在中国的适生区[J].环境昆虫学报,2021,43(6):1427-1434.
	WEN X Y, WANG Y, JIANG F, et al.. Potential distribution prediction of yellow spined bamboo locust (Ceracris kiangsu) in China based on maxent model [J]. J. Environ. Entomol., 2021, 43(6):1427-1434.
10	胥丹丹,陈立,王晓伟,等.我国入侵昆虫学研究进展[J].应用昆虫学报,2017,54(6):885-897.
	XU D D, CHEN L, WANG X W, et al.. Advances in the research on invasive insects in China [J]. J. Appl. Entomol., 2017, 54(6):885-897.
11	DIAGNE C, LEROY B, GOZLAN R E, et al.. InvaCost, a public database of the economic costs of biological invasions worldwide [J]. Sci. Data, 2020, 7(1):277-286.
12	DANA E D, JECHKE J M, GARCIA-DE-LOMAS J. Decision tools for managing biological invasions: existing biases and future needs [J]. Oryx, 2013, 48(1):56-63.
13	KIRICHENKO N, HAUBROCK P J, CUTHBERT R N, et al.. Economic costs of biological invasions in terrestrial ecosystems in Russia [J]. NeoBiota, 2021, 67:103-130.
14	HAUBROCK P J, CUTHBERT R N, SUNDERMANN A, et al.. Economic costs of invasive species in Germany [J]. NeoBiota, 2021, 67:225-246.
15	KOUBA A, OFICIALDEGUI F J, CUTHBERT R N, et al.. Identifying economic costs and knowledge gaps of invasive aquatic crustaceans [J/OL]. Sci. Total Environ., 2022, 813:152325 [2022-12-15]. .
16	DIAGNE C, LEROY B, VAISSIERE A, et al.. High and rising economic costs of biological invasions worldwide [J]. Nature, 2021, 592(7855):571-576.
17	COSTANZA R, DE GROOT R, SUTTON P, et al.. Changes in the global value of ecosystem services [J]. Global Environ. Chang., 2014, 26(1):152-158.
18	CASTILLO A D, VAN DEN BERGH J, SAVINA I, et al.. Cost-benefit analysis of conservation policy: the red palm weevil in Catalonia, Spain [J/OL]. Ecol. Econ., 2020, 167:106453 [2022-12-15]. .
19	WORLD BANKTHE. World bank open data [EB/OL]. [2022-12-22]. .
20	ESSL F, DULLINGER S, RABITSCH W, et al.. Socioeconomic legacy yields an invasion debt [J]. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 2011, 108(1):203-207.
21	FANTLE-LEPCZYK J E, HAUBROCK P J, KRAMER A M, et al.. Economic costs of biological invasions in the United States [J]. Sci. Total Environ., 2022, 806(3):151318 [2022-12-15]. .
22	ANGULO E, HOFFMANN B D, BALLESTEROS-MEJIA L, et al.. Economic costs of invasive alien ants worldwide [J]. Biol. Invasions, 2022, 24:2041-2060.
23	AHMED D A, HUDGINS E J, CUTHBERT R N, et al.. Managing biological invasions: the cost of inaction [J]. Biol. Invasion., 2022, 24:1927-1946.
24	石旺鹏.草地贪夜蛾到底有多"贪"[J].植物保护学报,2020,47(4):687-691.
	SHI W P. How greedy are the fall armyworm? [J]. J. Plant Prot., 2020, 47(4):687-691.
25	任利利,陶静,武海卫,等.重大害虫长林小蠹入侵我国的首次发现与侵染特征[J].林业科学,2021,57(5):140-150.
	REN L L, TAO J, WU H W, et al.. The first discovery and infective characteristics of a major invasive pest Hylurgus ligniperda (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) in China [J]. Sci. Silver Sin., 2021, 57(5):140-150.
26	王磊,陈科伟,冯晓东,等.我国大陆红火蚁入侵扩张趋势长期预测[J].环境昆虫学报,2022,44(2):339-344.
	WANG L, CHEN K W, FENG X D, et al.. Long-term predication of red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta Buren) expansion in mainland China [J]. J. Environ. Entomol., 2022, 44(2):339-344.
27	赫传杰,李加正,王越,等.美国白蛾发生情况及2022年趋势预测[J].中国森林病虫,2022,41(1):46-48.
	HE C J, LI J Z, WANG Y, et al.. Hyphantria cunea occurrence and trend forecast to 2022 [J]. For. Pest Disease, 2022, 41(1):46-48.
28	ANGULO E, BALLESTEROS-MEJIA L, NOVOA A, et al.. Economic costs of invasive alien species in Spain [J]. NeoBiota, 2021, 67(2):267-297.

基于InvaCost数据库评估全球入侵昆虫的经济成本

Assessing of Economic Costs on Global Invasive Insects Based on InvaCost Database

RichHTML

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 6

参考文献 28

相关文章 0

编辑推荐

Metrics