关键词: 粮食生产；多元回归；影响因素；甘肃省

Abstract:

It is of great significance for regional grain security to make clear the grain production capacity. Taking relevant grain production data from 1990 to 2011 in Gansu Province as sample, this article selected 9 indicators which had greater influence on grain production, and established a multiple linear regression model，and then analyzed the influential factors of grain production in Gansu Province by SPSS software. The results showed that those major influential factors were sowing areas of grain, applying quantity of chemical fertilizer, electric power consumption in rural areas, and areas affected by disasters. Their influence degree were 92.0%、24.8%、16.9%、-22.2%. According to the actual situation of Gansu Province, this paper put forward basic countermeasures to maintain the stability of grain production as following: in the premise of guaranteeing stable grain sowing areas, to further improve chemical fertilizer utilization efficiency; to strengthen power resources management and infrastructure construction of farm land, especially irrigation and water conservancy construction； and to speed up the innovation of agricultural science and technology.

Key words: grain production, multiple regression, influential factors, Gansu Province