Abstract:

Through analyzing farmers production behavior, this paper studied the causes of price fluctuations of agricultural products. The results showed that as necessities, agricultural products itself was the cause for price fluctuation. The expectation for agricultural products price led the farmers, consumer, speculators to store and close out agricultural products, which also exacerbated the volatile prices of agricultural products. Besides, the unreasonable agricultural products reserve system would aggravate the volatile prices of agricultural products. Only by choosing appropriate time for purchase or heavy selling and considering the effects brought about by these actions on farmers production and social storage or selling, the price fluctuation could be inhibited. The agricultural informatization could improve the accuracy of farmers prediction and farmers understanding, so as to reach the goal of inhibiting price fluctuations of agricultural products.

Key words: price fluctuation of agricultural products, pricing expectation agricultural product reserve system, agricultural informationization

摘要：

从分析农民的生产行为入手，研究了农产品价格波动的原因，结果显示，农产品作为必需品本身的特性是农产品价格波动的根源，对农产品价格的预期，引起农民、消费者、投机者对农产品的储存和抛售行为加剧了农产品价格的波动，不合理的农产品储备制度会加剧农产品价格的波动，选择合适的收购或抛售时机并考虑这些行为对农户生产和对社会储存或抛售的影响，才能起到抑制农产品价格波动的作用，农业信息化能够提高农民预测的准确性和农民对其之间相互影响的认识，达到抑制农产品价格波动的目的。

关键词: 农产品价格波动;价格预期;农产品储备制度;农业信息化