Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology ›› 2019, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (11): 17-26.DOI: 10.13304/j.nykjdb.2019.0214
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HUANG Zeying, GUO Yanzhi, SUN Junmao*
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黄泽颖,郭燕枝,孙君茂*
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Abstract: The balance of feed grain supply and demand archieved by science and technology helps to ensure China food and nutrition security. This paper focused on seed and feed conversion technology and measured the long-term equilibrium coefficient of seed input-output efficiency and annual feed grain yield from 1981 to 2016 and the long-term equilibrium coefficient of feed conversion efficiency and annual livestock and poultry output from 1992 to 2016 in China by using error correction model. The results showed that when the seed input-output efficiency increased by 1, the annual increase in feed grain yield of rice, wheat, corn and soybean was 0.91×104, 127.33×104, 9.46×104 and 68.51×104 t, respectively, which substituted grain import volume from 2012 to 2017 with average increase of 447.71, 2.74, 39.39 and 108.14. When the feed grain conversion efficiency increased by 1, the annual output increase in pork, beef, mutton, chicken, eggs and milk were 748.69×104, 643.08×104, 148.30×104, 437.69×104, 606.33×104 and 241.89×104 t, respectively. The feed grain conversion efficiency of the layer and the cow still need to be improved by 1.74 and 12.13 to reach the 2020 nutrition program goal. The deficiency intakes of protein, calcium, zinc and vitamin A for residents needed to be improved by 5.52 of the cattles feed grain conversion efficiency, 89.40 of the cows feed grain conversion efficiency, 3.10 of the cattles feed grain conversion efficiency and 14.80 of the layers feed grain conversion efficiency.
Key words: food and nutrition security, seed technology, feed grain conversion efficiency, error correction model
摘要: 科技实现饲料粮供需平衡有助于保障我国粮食和营养安全。聚焦粮食种子和饲料粮转化科技,采用误差修正模型测算了我国1981—2016年种子投入产出效率与饲料粮年产量的长期均衡系数及1992—2016年畜禽饲料粮转化效率与畜禽产品年产量的长期均衡系数。结果表明:种子投入产出效率每提高1,稻谷、小麦、玉米、大豆的饲料粮年增产分别为0.91万、127.33万、9.46万、68.51万t,替代2012—2017年进口量平均需要提高447.71、2.74、39.39、108.14;饲料粮转化效率每提高1,猪肉、牛肉、羊肉、鸡肉、鸡蛋、牛奶年增产分别为748.69万、643.08万、148.30万、437.69万、606.33万、241.89万t,2020年营养纲要目标需要提高的蛋鸡和奶牛饲料粮转化效率分别是1.74和12.13;居民蛋白质、钙、锌、维生素A的摄入量需要分别提高肉牛饲料粮转化效率5.52、奶牛饲料粮转化效率89.40、肉牛饲料粮转化效率3.10、蛋鸡饲料粮转化效率14.80。
关键词: 粮食和营养安全, 种子科技, 饲料粮转化效率, 误差修正模型
HUANG Zeying, GUO Yanzhi, SUN Junmao*. Seed Input-output Efficiency, Feed Grain Conversion Efficiency and Food and Nutrition Security[J]. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, 2019, 21(11): 17-26.
黄泽颖,郭燕枝,孙君茂*. 种子投入产出效率、饲料粮转化效率与粮食和营养安全[J]. 中国农业科技导报, 2019, 21(11): 17-26.
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URL: https://www.nkdb.net/EN/10.13304/j.nykjdb.2019.0214
https://www.nkdb.net/EN/Y2019/V21/I11/17