Abstract:

Under the background of putting forward land transfer and moderate scale land management by the government, based on the previous consecutive 23 years data, this paper carries out an empirical analysis about several hypothetical indicators that may be correlated to the development of agricultural mechanism, and extracts the factors affecting the development of agricultural machinery, using factor analysis method. Then regression analysis is conducted to find out some rules of  agricultural machinery development in China. The results showed that in the next few years, agricultural machinery in China will develope even faster. Agricultural machinery with intelligent, high power, high efficient environment protection will replace the aging and energy consuming  machinery. Before ending, the paper gives some policy suggestions and provides certain meaningfull references for the development of agricultural machinery in China.

Key words: agricultural machinery, factor analysis, regression analysis, Land moderate scale management

摘要：

在国家大力提出土地流转,土地适度规模经营的背景下，分析了与我国农业机械化发展相关多个经济指标23年历史数据，应用因子分析法提炼出影响农业机械发展的因子，再做回归分析得出我国农业机械发展一些规律。研究结果显示在未来的几年我国农业机械的发展将会更快，智能化、大功率、环保高效的农机将会取代老化的耗能的机械的结论。并给出一些政策建议，为我国农业机械的发展提供一些有意义的参考。

关键词: 农业机械, 因子分析, 回归分析, 土地适度规模经营