Abstract:

Taking the statistical data of 36 counties within the jurisdiction of the Loess Plateau of Gansu Province, this paper studied the changing characteristics of grain yield and crop structure from 1991-2012,  and the effect of yield of per unit area and crop structure on the total grain output. On these basis, the paper analyzed the regional grain demand and production capacity in 2030, put forward ways to increase grain production for meeting consumers demand. The results indicated that the total grain yield, yield of per unit area and sown area in 1991 at the Loess Plateau of Gansu Province showed an increasing trend in waving motion; the increase of total output coming from the yield increase of per unit area, and the yield increase of per unit area was mainly contributed by applying plastic film mulching technology, and expansion of corn and potato sown areas. According to forecasting, the grain requirement in the Loess Plateau of Gansu Province in 2030 will be 935.76×104 t, but its production capacity is only 645.48×104 t with self-sufficiency rate of only 68.98%. To solve the problem of grain deficiency, the area of plastic film mulching must be expand to 122×104 hm2, accounting for 79.9% of the total grain sown area; and the quantity of used plastic film should increase to 31 thousand ton. Thus, the average annual yield of per unit area could be increased by 1.76% and the goal of self-sufficient can be realized.

Key words: Loess Plateau, grain yield, crop structure, plastic film mulching, Gansu Province

摘要：

基于甘肃省黄土高原区所辖36个县域的统计数据，研究了1991-2012年间粮食产量及结构的变化特征，以及单产和种植结构对粮食总产的影响，在此基础上预测分析了2030年区域粮食需求和生产能力，并提出粮食产量提高以满足消费需求的途径。结果显示：1991年来甘肃省黄土高原区粮食总产、单产及播种面积整体呈波动增长趋势，粮食总产量增加主要来自于单产的提高，单产提高的主要贡献来自于地膜覆盖技术的应用和玉米、马铃薯播种面积的扩大。预测2030年甘肃省黄土高原区粮食需求达到935.76万t，而生产能力仅为645.48万t，粮食自给率为69.0%。要解决未来区域粮食需求不足的问题，地膜覆盖面积必须要扩大到122万hm2，占粮食总播种面积的79.9%，地膜使用量增加3.1万t，单产年均提高1.76%，才能实现区域粮食自给的目标。

关键词: 黄土高原；粮食产量；粮食结构；地膜覆盖；甘肃省