Abstract: With the prevailing of reverse globalization trend of thought and trade protectionism, it is of important significance to explore the influence of possible trade friction on forage industry, and clarify the development strategy of forage industry under this background. This paper analyzed the development trend of Chinas forage industry. In recent years, the forage production volume was larger, demand for forage products was on the rise. The price of homegrown forage was declining. The growth rate of import forage products was slackening, while the demand for forage products produced in United States of America was still bigger. In short term, the possible trade friction would affect the domestic forage market and development of dairy industry. In the long term, it might become opportunities for developing domestic forage industry, and promoting its rapid development. At the same time, it would intensify the competitive strength of import market. The paper suggested that repositioning agricultural production system, highlighting the strategic position of forage industry, supporting the rapid development of forage industry, accelerating the commercialization process of forage products, focusing on the international forage market, promoting the diversification of forage import market, establishing the forage reserve system, and expediting the circulation of forage products.

Key words: forage industry, forage product, reverse globalization, trade friction, development strategy

摘要： 随着逆全球化思潮和贸易保护主义盛行，探究可能的贸易摩擦对牧草产业的影响，明确牧草产业在该背景下的发展战略，具有重要现实意义。剖析了当前我国牧草产业发展的趋势，近年来，我国牧草生产体量较大，牧草消费需求不断增长，国产牧草价格有所下滑；草产品进口增速放缓，但对美国牧草依赖较大。就可能的贸易摩擦影响而言，短期内会影响国内草产品市场及奶业发展；长期来看，会成为牧草产业发展的契机，助推牧草产业快速发展；同时会加剧草产品进口市场竞争力度。建议重新定位农业生产系统，突出草业发展战略地位；扶持牧草产业快速发展，加快牧草商品化进程；关注国际草产品市场，推动进口市场多元化；建立草产品储备制度，加快推进草产品流通。

关键词: 牧草产业, 草产品, 逆全球化, 贸易摩擦, 发展战略