Abstract:

In order to study the relationship between strips yield and other physical characteristics, stepwise regression analysis, partial-correlation analysis and path analysis methods were used to analyze 35 flue-cured tobacco samples. The results showed that leaf length（X1）, thickness（X3）, tensile strength（X6）, environmental moisture content(EMC)（X8）and stem content（X9）were the main physical indexes that affected strips yield（Y^）. The relationship between leaf length, tensile strength, EMC and strips yield was positive correlation at significant level. There was a significant negative correlation of thickness, stem content in tobacco with strips yield. Tobacco leaf length was the most important decisive factor that influenced the stem content in tobacco leaves. Thickness was the most limiting factor that influenced strips yield. These 5 factors and their interaction determined 99.97% of the tobacco leaves strips yield. The model（Y^=51.173 8+0.679 9X1-0.569 2X3+8.009 4X6+3.268 8X8-0.492 1X9,R2=0999 72）for predicting the strips yield of tobacco leaves was established.

Key words: flue-cured tobacco, strips yield, prediction, physical characteristics, correlation

摘要：

为研究烤烟叶片物理特性与出片率的关系,建立烤烟出片率的预测模型,应用逐步回归分析、偏相关分析和通径分析等方法对35个烟叶样品进行了分析。结果表明：叶长(X1)、厚度（X3）、抗张力（X6）、平衡含水率（X8）和含梗率（X9）是影响烟叶出片率（Y^）的主要物理指标,叶长、抗张力、平衡含水率与烟叶出片率呈显著正相关,厚度、含梗率与烟叶出片率呈显著负相关；叶长是影响叶片出片率的最主要决策因素；厚度是影响烤烟叶片出片率的最主要限制因素；5个因子以及它们之间的相互影响决定了烟叶出片率的99.97%,并建立了烟叶出片率的预测模型：Y^=51.173 8+0.679 9X1-0.569 2X3+8.009 4X6+3.268 8X8-0.492 1X9,R2=0.999 72。

关键词: 烤烟;出片率;预测;物理特性;相关关系