Abstract:

CA-Markov model  has been  more and more widely used in the field of land-use study. In order to study the changing law of land use in Tianjin, this paper takes ETM / TM remote sensing images of 1999 and 2007 as basic data; and carries out dynamic simulation and prediction on the landscape pattern of Tianjin from 2015-2023 by CA-Markov model. The results showed that between 1999 and 2007, the artificial wetland  and construction use land showed an increasing trend; while the natural wetland and arable land decreased year by year; the area change of the rest  types of land was not big. The result of CA-Markov model predictions showed that the land-use change trends in 2007-2015 and 2015-2023 were similar as that in 1999-2007, the natural landscape was gradually changed to man-made landscape. The pattern of the various types of land can be reasonably adjusted according to the prediction results, thus providing a scientific basis for land management and planning of this area.

Key words: dynamic change, simulating prediction, CA-Markov model, land use

摘要：

CA-Markov模型在土地利用研究领域得到了越来越广泛的应用。为了研究天津市土地利用变化规律，以1999、2007两年的同时相ETM/TM遥感影像为数据基础，采用CA-Markov模型，对天津市2015和2023年土地利用空间格局进行动态模拟和预测。结果表明：1999-2007年间，人工湿地和建设用地呈现增加趋势；自然湿地和耕地面积逐年减少，主要是工业、建设用地占用；其余土地类型面积变化不大。CA-Markov模型预测结果表明2007-2015年，2015-2023年土地利用变化保持1999-2007年间的变化趋势，自然景观逐步向人为景观转变。根据预测结果可以合理调整各类型土地格局，为该区土地管理规划提供科学依据。

关键词: 动态变化;模拟预测;CA-Markov模型;土地利用