Abstract:

Abstract Through analysing the data (1974- 1991 ) of corn borer and the climatic factors in the north onegeneration-Nenjiang region of Heilongjiang provence by using statistical analysis and regression equation, thedecision model for integrated control of corn borer in a nonparticular calamity year was established. By usingin the corn field of 250000 hm2 since 1992,the correct rate of forecast was over 90% and the benefit was re-markable.

Key words: Corn borer integrated control Decision model Climatic factors

摘要：

采用统计分析和回归分析的方法,对黑龙江省嫩江地区北部玉米螟一代区1974～1991年中14年的玉米螟研究资料及相应年份的相关气象资料进行整理分析,筛选出非特殊灾变年份玉米螟发生量中、短期预测模型,并根据对经济阈值的分析,建立了玉米螟综合防治决策模型.从1992年开始在拜泉县等地进行综合防治决策模型的生产应用,检验和修订.累计应用面积250000hm2,预报准确率达90%以上,获经济效益2710万元.

关键词: 玉米螟, 综合防治, 决策模型, 气象因子