Abstract:

The main target of the paper is exploiting the change of the maximum temperature during

midseason rice flowering period, and its impact on the yield of midseason rice. Based on

the statistical data on weather in 7 provinces during 15 years, the midseason rice

function models are built up, with temperature variables included. Our result shows that

the maximum temperatures during midseason rice flowering periods have increasing trend

with a substantial fluctuation, with great differences among regions. When the maximum

temperature is between 35℃ to 39℃, the average yield of midseason rice will not change

significantly, but if the maximum temperature is above 39℃, the average yield of mid-

season rice will decrease by 13 percent.

Key words: climate change, the maximum temperature, midseason rice production, the Yangtze River Basin

摘要：

为了分析中稻花期高温的变化及其对中稻产量的影响,利用1991-2005年气象统计数据及对7个省份中稻

生产数据的描述性统计分析,建立了中稻生产定量分析函数模型,每个方程中除了包含传统的生产投入

变量、技术进步变量等外,还分别包含7种类型的气温变量。结果表明,21世纪以来,长江流域中稻花期

的极端高温呈升高趋势,并伴随较大幅度的波动,且各地区增长幅度存在较大差异；当极端高温处于35

℃到39℃之间,中稻的平均产量与35℃以下情况无显著差异,但当极端高温达39℃以上时,平均产量会显

著降低13%。

关键词: 气候变化；极端高温；中稻生产；长江流域