Abstract: Since the 1990’s, China’s dairy industry has developed rapidly. But a series of macro and micro factors  led to severe fluctuation in milk production and milk price, and even created a fatal blow to China’s dairy industry. Especially the frequent occurrence of “dumping milk”, “killing cow”, etc. had directly influenced the stability of dairy industry production, and balanced supply of milk market. This paper adopted data of milk production, milk prices, feed price, and scale rate from 1995-2013 and studied milk supply response by using Nerlove model. The results showed that lag 2 phase of milk production and one phase of feed price had a negative impact on milk production of this phase, meanwhile lag one phase of milk production, milk price and scale rate had a positive influence on milk production. When the short-term supply elasticity of milk was 0.104 0, showing there was no flexibility existed; when the long-term supply elasticity of milk was 2.126 8, showing there was rich in elasticity for a long period of time, and the supply response to milk price was lag behind. Therefore, government should enhance the scale level, support the feed enterprises to develop, expand planting area for high quality feed, maintain the continuity and stability of policy for dairy industry, and guide the dairy industry to build a more closer and reasonable relationship between benefit and allocation.

Key words: milk, supply response, Nerlove model, influencing fators

摘要： 自20世纪90年代以来，我国奶业快速发展。但一系列宏微观影响因素经常会导致牛奶生产和价格剧烈波动，甚至对我国奶业产生致命打击，特别是经常发生的“倒奶事件”、“杀奶牛事件”等，直接影响着我国奶业生产的稳定和牛奶市场的均衡供应。采用1995-2013年我国牛奶产量、牛奶价格、饲料价格和规模化率数据，运用Nerlove模型对牛奶供给反应进行研究。研究结果如下：滞后两期牛奶产量和滞后一期饲料价格对本期牛奶产量有着负影响，滞后一期牛奶产量、滞后一期牛奶价格和规模化率对本期牛奶产量有着正影响；牛奶的短期弹性为0.104 0，短期内缺乏弹性，长期弹性为2.126 8，长期内富有弹性，表明牛奶供给对价格的反应存在滞后性。因此，政府应该提升规模化水平，扶持饲料企业发展和扩大优质饲料的种植面积，保持奶业价格政策的持续、稳定性，引导奶产业构建更加紧密的、合理的利益分配关系。

关键词: 牛奶；供给反应；Nerlove模型, 影响因素