Abstract:

Broiler industry is an important part of animal husbandry in China, but it is heavily affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza. In order to evaluate the economic loss caused by the disease, and guarantee the healthy and stable development of broiler industry, highly pathogenic avian influenzas impact parameters were introduced to partial equilibrium model regarding broilers supply and demand, to establish a model to measure the diseases economic impact on broiler production, consumption, export and import. The result showed that a highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak would make chicken output, per capita consumption of chicken, chicken exports and imports in China reduced 0.003%, 0.01%, 0.021% and 0.049%, respectively. Highly pathogenic avian influenza in 2004 and 2005 had the most serious influence on broiler industry in China. From 2004 to 2009, the loss of broiler industry caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza was the consumption > the imports > the production > the exports. This model could help to get further understanding in economic impact of highly pathogenic avian influenza on broiler industry. This research method would also fit for studying the economic impact of natural disasters on other industries.

Key words: highly pathogenic avian influenza, broiler industry, economic impact, partial equilibrium model, loss evaluation

摘要：

肉鸡产业是我国畜牧业的重要组成部分，但深受高致病性禽流感的影响。为评估每次疫病带来的经济损失，保障肉鸡产业健康稳定发展，在肉鸡供需局部均衡模型引入高致病性禽流感冲击参数，构建测算高致病性禽流感对肉鸡产业经济影响的模型。通过对高致病性禽流感对我国肉鸡产业影响程度的测算发现，该疫情对鸡肉生产、消费、出口、进口的弹性系数是-0.003、-0.01、-0.021和-0.049。2004年和2005年的疫情对我国肉鸡产业的影响最为严重；2004-2009年，高致病性禽流感疫情造成我国鸡肉消费的总损失量最大，进口次之，其次是生产，最后是出口。因此，模型结果有助于加深对高致病性禽流感对肉鸡产业经济影响的认识，研究方法也适合研究自然灾害对其他产业的经济影响。

关键词: 高致病性禽流感, 肉鸡产业, 经济影响, 局部均衡模型, 损失评估