关键词: 高致病性禽流感, 肉鸡产业, 经济影响, 局部均衡模型, 损失评估

Abstract:

Broiler industry is an important part of animal husbandry in China, but it is heavily affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza. In order to evaluate the economic loss caused by the disease, and guarantee the healthy and stable development of broiler industry, highly pathogenic avian influenzas impact parameters were introduced to partial equilibrium model regarding broilers supply and demand, to establish a model to measure the diseases economic impact on broiler production, consumption, export and import. The result showed that a highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak would make chicken output, per capita consumption of chicken, chicken exports and imports in China reduced 0.003%, 0.01%, 0.021% and 0.049%, respectively. Highly pathogenic avian influenza in 2004 and 2005 had the most serious influence on broiler industry in China. From 2004 to 2009, the loss of broiler industry caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza was the consumption > the imports > the production > the exports. This model could help to get further understanding in economic impact of highly pathogenic avian influenza on broiler industry. This research method would also fit for studying the economic impact of natural disasters on other industries.

Key words: highly pathogenic avian influenza, broiler industry, economic impact, partial equilibrium model, loss evaluation