关键词: 病虫害, 预测, 气象, 模型

Abstract: The inappropriate use of pesticides is commonly existing in current prevention and control of crop diseases and insect in China, which has severely endangered the food security. This paper reviewed the latest research progresses in forecasting mechanism and methodology for crop disease and insect pest. About the forecasting mechanism, the paper analyzed many elements affecting the epidemic of crop diseases and insect pests, including climate background, meteorological factors, distribution of diseases and insects, host status, and planting pattern, etc. Besides, the paper also expounded in detail according to existing research results the indicative functions of sea temperature, El Nino, atmospheric circulation, etc. meteorological factors, and influence of meteorological factors like temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind and illumination, etc. on occurrence time, infection speed, spread and distribution of diseases and insect pests. In terms of the forecasting models, three types of models such as the static model, temporal dynamic model, and spatial dispersal model were summarized and introduced. The methodologies for forecasting the occurrence of diseases and insects, severity, dispersal and epidemics were reviewed. Finally, the paper looked forward the future development trend of forecasting technology for crop diseases and insect pests, and discussed the key issues, regarding data, analytical method, scale, research and application pattern, etc..

Key words: disease and insect pest, forecast, meteorology, model