Abstract:

In the past thirty years, Chinas maize production has been keeping growing, and now maize has become the largest crop in China in terms of both output and production area. Because the growth rate of maize demand is higher than that of production, China has become a net importer of maize since 2010, and the import volume has been increasing. This study used CAPSiM model projected Chinas maize future supply and demand. The results show that Chinas future supply and demand of maize will continue to grow, but demand will grow faster. China may have to import more maize in the future to fulfill its increasing maize demand. Based on discussions on the challenges of Chinas future maize production, this paper proposes policy measures to promote Chinas maize production in the next decades.

Key words: maize industry, CAPSiM model, challenge, policy suggestions

摘要：

过去三十多年来,中国玉米产量持续增长,玉米已经成为我国种植面积和产量最大的粮食作物。由于需求增长幅度高于产量增长幅度,自2010年中国成为玉米净进口国,而且进口量逐年增大。运用CAPSiM模型对中国玉米未来的供给、需求状况进行了预测。模型结果显示,受饲料需求增长等因素影响,中国未来玉米需求量还将持续增长,玉米供需缺口还将进一步扩大。在综合分析中国未来玉米生产面临的制约因素的基础上,提出了促进中国玉米生产、保障国家粮食安全的政策措施建议。

关键词: 玉米产业;CAPSiM模型;挑战;政策建议