全球气候变化下我国远洋渔业产业风险评估研究

doi:10.13304/j.nykjdb.2023.0280

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探究全球气候变化背景下我国远洋渔业产业的风险现状，并对其进行产业风险水平评估，通过对2009—2021年我国远洋渔业产业相关数据及海洋气候变动数据进行分析，基于压力-状态-响应（pressure-state-response，PSR）模型框架构建风险评估指标体系，运用风险指数模型测定我国远洋渔业的压力、状态、响应风险水平。风险评估结果表明，受海洋气候变化和海洋极端灾害的影响，2009—2021年远洋渔业总风险指数呈现波动上升的变化趋势。压力风险指数的变化趋势与总风险指数的变动大体相似，表明气候变动因素在影响远洋渔业产业风险中占极大比重。状态风险指数总体呈上升趋势，表明我国远洋渔业应对气候变化压力的敏感度变大。响应风险指数总体呈波动增长的趋势，说明我国远洋渔业的适应能力和恢复能力在逐渐加强。基于此，从外部气候因素及内部社会经济因素2方面提出对策建议，为增强我国远洋渔业的风险防范能力、实现我国远洋渔业的高质量发展提供参考。

关键词: 远洋渔业, 气候变化, PSR模型, 风险评估

Abstract:

To explore the current risk status of China’s pelagic fishery industry in the context of current global climate change and assess the risk level of the industry， the data related to China’s pelagic fishery industry and ocean climate change data from 2009 to 2021 were analyzed. The risk assessment index system was constructed based on the pressure-state-response（PSR） model framework， and the risk index model was applied to determine the level of pressure， state and response risk of China’s pelagic fisheries. The risk assessment results showed that the total risk index of the pelagic fishery from 2009 to 2021 showed a fluctuating upward trend due to the influence of ocean climate changes and ocean extreme disasters. The changing trend of the pressure risk index was generally similar to the change of the total risk index， indicating that climate change factors occupied a great proportion in affecting the risk of the pelagic fishery industry. The overall increasing trend of the state risk index indicated that the sensitivity of China’s pelagic fisheries to cope with climate change pressure had become greater. The overall trend of fluctuating increase in the response risk index indicated that the adaptive capacity and recovery ability of China’s pelagic fisheries themselves were gradually strengthening. Based on this， countermeasures were proposed from both external climatic factors and internal socio-economic factors， which could help enhance the risk prevention capability of China’s pelagic fisheries and provide a reference for achieving high-quality development of China’s pelagic fisheries.

Key words: pelagic fisheries, climate change, PSR model, risk assessment

中图分类号:

F326.4

赵薇, 何静. 全球气候变化下我国远洋渔业产业风险评估研究[J]. 中国农业科技导报, 2023, 25(10): 12-21.

Wei ZHAO, Jing HE. Study on Risk Assessment of China’s Pelagic Fisheries Industry Under Global Climate Change[J]. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, 2023, 25(10): 12-21.

图/表 6

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目标层 Target layer	准则层A Criterion layer A	准则层B Criterion layer B	指标层 Indicator layer	熵值法权重 Entropy method weight	变异系数法权重 Coefficient of variation method weight	综合权重 Combined weight
远洋渔业产业风险 Pelagic fishing industry risks	P=0.336 2	D1=0.112 7	P1	0.060 9	0.071 4	0.050 0
		D1=0.112 7	P2	0.067 6	0.080 7	0.062 7
		D2=0.223 5	P3	0.137 6	0.101 9	0.161 1
		D2=0.223 5	P4	0.067 3	0.080 6	0.062 4
	S=0.167 2	D3=0.077 9	S1	0.081 3	0.083 4	0.077 9
		D4=0.029 1	S2	0.044 7	0.056 6	0.029 1
		D5=0.060 2	S3	0.071 4	0.073 3	0.060 2
	R=0.496 6	D6=0.175 0	R1	0.106 4	0.100 3	0.122 7
		D6=0.175 0	R2	0.063 4	0.071 8	0.052 3
		D7=0.210 1	R3	0.093 6	0.089 6	0.096 5
		D7=0.210 1	R4	0.102 3	0.096 7	0.113 7
		D8=0.111 4	R5	0.103 4	0.093 7	0.111 4

目标层 Target layer	准则层A Criterion layer A	准则层B Criterion layer B	指标层 Indicator layer	熵值法权重 Entropy method weight	变异系数法权重 Coefficient of variation method weight	综合权重 Combined weight
远洋渔业产业风险 Pelagic fishing industry risks	P=0.336 2	D1=0.112 7	P1	0.060 9	0.071 4	0.050 0
		D1=0.112 7	P2	0.067 6	0.080 7	0.062 7
		D2=0.223 5	P3	0.137 6	0.101 9	0.161 1
		D2=0.223 5	P4	0.067 3	0.080 6	0.062 4
	S=0.167 2	D3=0.077 9	S1	0.081 3	0.083 4	0.077 9
		D4=0.029 1	S2	0.044 7	0.056 6	0.029 1
		D5=0.060 2	S3	0.071 4	0.073 3	0.060 2
	R=0.496 6	D6=0.175 0	R1	0.106 4	0.100 3	0.122 7
		D6=0.175 0	R2	0.063 4	0.071 8	0.052 3
		D7=0.210 1	R3	0.093 6	0.089 6	0.096 5
		D7=0.210 1	R4	0.102 3	0.096 7	0.113 7
		D8=0.111 4	R5	0.103 4	0.093 7	0.111 4

年份 Year	压力风险指数 Pressure risk index	状态风险指数 State risk index	响应风险指数 Response risk index	总风险指数 Total risk index
2009	0.216 5	0.017 4	0.073 1	0.307 0
2010	0.213 9	0.063 0	0.220 1	0.497 0
2011	0.114 4	0.045 1	0.151 2	0.310 7
2012	0.100 5	0.041 9	0.169 1	0.311 5
2013	0.087 4	0.055 7	0.194 2	0.337 3
2014	0.068 5	0.115 7	0.319 9	0.504 1
2015	0.278 4	0.131 2	0.301 7	0.711 3
2016	0.168 4	0.108 4	0.190 6	0.467 4
2017	0.084 8	0.139 0	0.269 1	0.493 0
2018	0.199 6	0.163 4	0.259 3	0.622 3
2019	0.193 7	0.139 1	0.194 7	0.527 5
2020	0.135 2	0.122 7	0.243 8	0.501 7
2021	0.195 3	0.086 6	0.282 6	0.564 6

年份 Year	压力风险指数 Pressure risk index	状态风险指数 State risk index	响应风险指数 Response risk index	总风险指数 Total risk index
2009	0.216 5	0.017 4	0.073 1	0.307 0
2010	0.213 9	0.063 0	0.220 1	0.497 0
2011	0.114 4	0.045 1	0.151 2	0.310 7
2012	0.100 5	0.041 9	0.169 1	0.311 5
2013	0.087 4	0.055 7	0.194 2	0.337 3
2014	0.068 5	0.115 7	0.319 9	0.504 1
2015	0.278 4	0.131 2	0.301 7	0.711 3
2016	0.168 4	0.108 4	0.190 6	0.467 4
2017	0.084 8	0.139 0	0.269 1	0.493 0
2018	0.199 6	0.163 4	0.259 3	0.622 3
2019	0.193 7	0.139 1	0.194 7	0.527 5
2020	0.135 2	0.122 7	0.243 8	0.501 7
2021	0.195 3	0.086 6	0.282 6	0.564 6

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