非洲猪瘟对东南亚生猪产业的影响及启示

doi:10.13304/j.nykjdb.2022.0809

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

2019年以来非洲猪瘟的爆发和持续传播给亚洲生猪产业造成严重损失，非洲猪瘟的有效防控直接关系产业的稳定。通过分析东南亚地区非洲猪瘟疫情形势、爆发原因以及对该地区两大生猪生产国（越南和菲律宾）生猪产业和市场的影响，评估非洲猪瘟防控、产业支持和市场调控政策的效果，结合我国疫病防控存在的问题，提出我国非洲猪瘟疫情防控和产业稳定政策优化建议，以促进我国生猪产业持续健康发展。研究发现，规模化程度低、生物安全意识不高、行业管理困难、活猪为主的流通模式等是越南和菲律宾非洲猪瘟疫情爆发并持续蔓延的主要原因，在非洲猪瘟发生后，两国猪肉产量大幅下降，猪价先跌后涨，猪肉进口大幅增长，引发生猪产业链重大变化。借鉴两国的防控经验，我国在非洲猪瘟防控中应加强对中小规模户的扶持，促进其转型升级，加快提升产业规模化、组织化水平，提高疫情防控效果，强化基础兽医服务体系建设，提升重大动物疫病防控能力，优化冻猪肉收储启动机制等措施，提高市场干预效果。

关键词: 非洲猪瘟, 生猪产业, 越南, 菲律宾, 疫情防控

Abstract:

The outbreak and continuous spread of African swine fever （ASF） since 2019 has caused serious losses to the Asian pig industry， the effective prevention and control of ASF is directly related to the stability of the pig industry. This paper evaluated the effects of ASF prevention and control measures， industrial support policies， and market regulations and proposes the recommendations for the optimizing the policies and measure of ASF control and pig industry stabilization in China by analyzing the situation of ASF in Southeast Asia， the causes of the outbreak， and the impact on the pig industry and market in Vietnam and the Philippines， the 2 biggest pig producers in the region. The results showed that the key factors contributing to the outbreak and ongoing spread of ASF in Vietnam and the Philippines were the challenge on the industry management for low scale， low biosecurity awareness， and transportation of large amounts of live pigs. Following the outbreak of ASF， the significant decreased in pork output， the sharp falled and rised of live pig prices， and the significant increased in pork imports as well as the significant transformation of pig industry chain were observed in both countries. By the reference of the prevention and control experiences of the two countries， China should increase the support on the small and medium-sized pig farms for the prevention and control of ASF to encourage their upgrading towards for modernization， accelerate the development of production scale level and organization level， improve the effect of epidemic prevention and control， strengthen the rural veterinary service system for the ability to prevent and control the major animal diseases， optimize the starting mechanism of governmental frozen pork storage to improve the effect of market intervention.

Key words: African swine fever, pig industry, Vietnam, the Philippines, epidemic prevention and control

中图分类号:

S851

林挺, 李鹏程, 浦华, 朱增勇. 非洲猪瘟对东南亚生猪产业的影响及启示[J]. 中国农业科技导报, 2024, 26(1): 9-17.

Ting LIN, Pengcheng LI, Hua PU, Zengyong ZHU. Effects of African Swine Fever on Pig Industry in Southeast Asia and Its Enlightenment[J]. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, 2024, 26(1): 9-17.

图/表 3

图1 2019—2021年菲律宾猪肉产量和年均增长率数据来源：菲律宾国家统计局。

Fig. 1 Pig production and average annual growth rate in the Philippines from 2019 to 2021Data source： the Philippine National Bureau of Statistics.

图2 2018年1月至2022年8月越南生猪价格数据来源：加裕全球市场报告。

Fig. 2 Pig prices in Vietnam from January 2018 to August 2022Data source： Genesus Global Market Report.

图3 2014—2021年越南和菲律宾猪肉进口量数据来源：联合国商品贸易统计数据库。

Fig. 3 Pork imports in Vietnam and the Philippines from 2014 to 2021Data source： United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database.

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