贵州茶树春季低温灾害气候风险评估与区划

doi:10.13304/j.nykjdb.2023.0722

中国农业科技导报 ›› 2025, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (4): 230-238.DOI: 10.13304/j.nykjdb.2023.0722

• 生物制造资源生态 • 上一篇

贵州茶树春季低温灾害气候风险评估与区划

张波¹(), 罗阳欢², 李浪³, 梁恒飞⁴, 胡家敏¹()

^1.贵州省生态与农业气象中心，贵阳 550002
^2.贵州省气候中心，贵阳 550002
^3.贵州省山地气象科学研究所，贵阳 550002
^4.荔波县气象局，贵州黔南布依族苗族自治州558400

收稿日期:2023-09-27 接受日期:2023-12-04 出版日期:2025-04-15 发布日期:2025-04-15
通讯作者: 胡家敏
作者简介:张波 E-mail：nj0622@126.com；
基金资助:
贵州省基础研究计划（自然科学类）项目（黔科合基础-ZK〔2023〕一般230,黔科合基础-ZK〔2021〕一般272）;贵州省气象局创新团队项目(黔气科合T〔2024〕06号)

Climate Risk Assessment and Zoning of Spring Low Temperature Disasters of Tea Trees in Guizhou

Bo ZHANG¹(), Yanghuan LUO², Lang LI³, Hengfei LIANG⁴, Jiamin HU¹()

^1.Guizhou Ecological Meteorology amd Agrometeorology Center，Guiyang 550002，China
^2.Guizhou Climate Center，Guiyang 550002，China
^3.Guizhou Mountainous Meteorological Science Research Institute，Guiyang 550002，China
^4.Meteorological Bureau of Libo County，Guizhou Qiannan Buyi and Miao Autonomous Prefecture 558400，China

Received:2023-09-27 Accepted:2023-12-04 Online:2025-04-15 Published:2025-04-15
Contact: Jiamin HU

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

春季低温灾害是影响贵州茶树的主要气象灾害之一，开展茶树春季低温灾害风险评估和区划，可为贵州茶产业科学的合理布局、设计低温气象指数保险产品提供技术支撑。基于自然灾害风险理论，利用贵州省1961—2020年84个气象站的逐日平均气温和日最低气温资料及1999—2017年各地茶树种植面积和产量资料，采用数理统计、信息熵权法、层次分析法和地理信息系统（geographic information system，GIS）空间分析等方法，开展贵州茶树春季低温灾害风险评估与区划。结果表明，致灾危险性指数与地理因子之间关系密切，空间上致灾危险性指数的高值区主要分布在高海拔区域。孕灾环境敏感性指数整体呈现自西向东递减的变化趋势。茶树低温灾害高风险等级面积为9.07×10⁵ hm²，约占5.15%；中高风险等级面积为3.16×10⁶ hm²，约占17.96%；低风险等级面积为3.49×10⁶ hm²，约占19.81%。其中，高风险和中高风险等级主要分布在威宁县、赫章县、纳雍县、大方县、水城区、都匀市西部、雷山县中部、江口县北部、印江县南部、湄潭县、凤冈县西部、正安县西部和东部局地以及务川县西部；低风险区主要分布西南部的北盘江流域、北部的赤水河流域和东南部的都柳江流域等。

关键词: 茶树, 霜冻害, 倒春寒, 风险区划, 贵州

Abstract:

Low temperature disaster in spring is the main meteorological disaster affecting tea trees in Guizhou. Climate risk assessment and zoning of spring low temperature disasters of tea trees could provide technical support for the scientific and reasonable layout of Guizhou tea industry， reducing losses caused by low temperature disasters， and designing low temperature meteorological index insurance products. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk， risk assessment and zoning of spring low temperature disasters of tea trees in Guizhou province were conducted using daily average temperature and daily minimum temperature data from 84 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2020， as well as tea planting area and yield data from 1999 to 2017. Mathematical statistics， information entropy weight method， analytic hierarchy process， and geographic information system （GIS） spatial analysis methods were used to assess the risk. The results showed that the risk index of low temperature induced disasters was closely related to geographical factors， and high value areas mainly distributed in high altitude areas in space. The overall sensitivity index of the pregnant disaster environment showed a decreasing trend from west to east. The high-risk area of low temperature disasters of tea trees in Guizhou was 9.07×10⁵ hm²， accounting for approximately 5.15%. The medium to high risk area was 3.16×10⁶ hm²， accounting for approximately 17.96%. The low risk area was 3.49×10⁶ hm²， accounting for approximately 19.81%. High risk and medium to high risk levels were mainly distributed in Weining county， Hezhang county， Nayong county， Dafang county， Shuicheng district， western part of Duyun city， central part of Leishan county， northern part of Jiangkou county， the southern part of Yinjiang county， Meitan county， and the western part of Fenggang county， the western and eastern parts of Zheng’an county and the western part of Wuchuan county. The low-risk areas were mainly distributed in the southwest of Beipan river basin， the north of Chishui river basin， and the southeast of Duliu river basin.

Key words: tea tree, frost damage, late spring cold, risk zoning, Guizhou

中图分类号:

S571.1

张波, 罗阳欢, 李浪, 梁恒飞, 胡家敏. 贵州茶树春季低温灾害气候风险评估与区划[J]. 中国农业科技导报, 2025, 27(4): 230-238.

Bo ZHANG, Yanghuan LUO, Lang LI, Hengfei LIANG, Jiamin HU. Climate Risk Assessment and Zoning of Spring Low Temperature Disasters of Tea Trees in Guizhou[J]. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, 2025, 27(4): 230-238.

图/表 7

图1 研究区域及站点分布注：底图的审图号为GS（2017）3220号。

Fig. 1 Distribution of Meteorology stationsNote： The approval number of base map is GS（2017）3220.

表1 霜冻害和倒春寒等级划分标准

Table1 Classification standard of frost and late spring cold

灾害类型Disaster type	等级 Grade	标准 Standard
霜冻Frost	轻霜冻 Light frost	0 ℃≤T_min≤2 ℃
	中霜冻 Medium frost	-2 ℃≤T_min<0 ℃
	重霜冻 Heavy frost	T_min<-2 ℃
倒春寒Late spring cold	轻级Light	持续3~4 d Duration 3~4 d
	中级Medium	持续5~6 d Duration 5~6 d
	重级Heavy	持续7~9 d Duration 7~9 d
	特重Extra heavy	持续≥10 d Duration≥10 d

表2 基于坡向像元值的坡向敏感性指数赋值标准

Table 2 Standards of assigning value to the sensitivity index of slope aspect based on slope image element value

坡向

Slope aspect

方位

Azimuth/（°）

赋值Assignment

坡向

Slope aspect

方位

Azimuth/（°）

赋值Assignment

坡向

Slope aspect

方位

Azimuth/（°）

赋值Assignment

南坡

South

［157.5，202.5）

东坡

East

东南坡

Southeast

［112.5，157.5）

西坡

Western

［247.5，292.5）

0.5

北坡

North

［0.0，22.5）

1.0

西南坡

Southwest

北坡

North

［337.5，360）

1.0

图2 致灾因子危险性指数空间分布注：底图的审图号为GS（2017）3220号。

Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of hazard indexNote： The approval number of base map is GS（2017）3220.

图3 孕灾环境敏感性指数空间分布特征注：底图的审图号为GS（2017）3220号。

Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of environment sensitiveness index to disastersNote： The approval number of base map is GS（2017）3220.

图4 茶种植面积和气象减产率空间分布A：茶园面积；B：气象减产率。底图的审图号为GS（2017）3220号。

Fig. 4 Spatial distribution of tea planting area and meteorological yield reduction rateA： Tea garden area； B： Meteorological yield reduction rate. The approval number of base map is GS（2017）3220.

图5 茶树低温灾害风险区划注：底图的审图号为GS（2017）3220号。

Fig. 5 Risk zonation oflow temperature damageNote： The approval number of base map is GS（2017）3220.

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贵州茶树春季低温灾害气候风险评估与区划

Climate Risk Assessment and Zoning of Spring Low Temperature Disasters of Tea Trees in Guizhou

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