关键词: 牛奶；供给反应；Nerlove模型, 影响因素

Abstract: Since the 1990’s, China’s dairy industry has developed rapidly. But a series of macro and micro factors  led to severe fluctuation in milk production and milk price, and even created a fatal blow to China’s dairy industry. Especially the frequent occurrence of “dumping milk”, “killing cow”, etc. had directly influenced the stability of dairy industry production, and balanced supply of milk market. This paper adopted data of milk production, milk prices, feed price, and scale rate from 1995-2013 and studied milk supply response by using Nerlove model. The results showed that lag 2 phase of milk production and one phase of feed price had a negative impact on milk production of this phase, meanwhile lag one phase of milk production, milk price and scale rate had a positive influence on milk production. When the short-term supply elasticity of milk was 0.104 0, showing there was no flexibility existed; when the long-term supply elasticity of milk was 2.126 8, showing there was rich in elasticity for a long period of time, and the supply response to milk price was lag behind. Therefore, government should enhance the scale level, support the feed enterprises to develop, expand planting area for high quality feed, maintain the continuity and stability of policy for dairy industry, and guide the dairy industry to build a more closer and reasonable relationship between benefit and allocation.

Key words: milk, supply response, Nerlove model, influencing fators