关键词: 粮食生产, 时空格局, 影响因素, 空间杜宾模型

Abstract: Grain issue is a major issue concerning the national economy and peoples livelihood. Along with economic development, the pattern of grain production in China has changed dramatically, causing potential impact on the balance of grain supply and demand and also food security. Based on provincial panel data of 31 administrative regions from 1997 to 2016, this paper analyzed the changes of grain production distribution in China from 2 dimensions of grain yield and sowing area, tested the spatial correlation of grain yield in each province and region by global Morans Ⅰ index, and analyzed the factors affecting the change of grain production pattern in various provinces of China by Space Dobbin Model (SDM). It was found that the focus of grain production in China had gradually moved northward, and there was a clear positive spatial auto-correlation between the grain output of various provinces and regions. The effective irrigation area, chemical fertilizer application quantity, ratio of grain sowing area to crop planting, and arable land per capita all exerted significant positive impact on the growth of grain production in China, among them the spatial spillover effect of effective irrigation area and per capita cultivated land area was significant. These factors had made the grain yield pattern changing in recent 20 years. Based on this, the paper suggested to improve the level of agricultural science and technology, perfect infrastructure construction of main grain producing areas, protect cultivated land, strengthen cooperation in coordinating grain supply and demand among provinces, so as to assure grain security.

Key words: grain production, spatial-temporal pattern, influencing factor, Spatial Durbin Model