关键词: 粮食主销区, 粮食安全, 粮食产需平衡缺口, 粮食消费, 影响因素

Abstract: In major grain sales regions of China, food security is still neglected, and this situation affects the food safety condition of China. This paper estimated the gap in balance between grain production and demand in major grain sales regions, and their gap degrees, also analyzed the main factors causing the gap by panel data model. The results showed that the gap between grain production and demand in major grain sales regions was becoming bigger and bigger, but the food gap degree in each grain sales regions was different. Beijing and Shanghai existed  extreme big grain gap, their average grain gap rates were over 70%; Tianjing and Guangdong province were bigger gap regions, their average grain gap rates were 40%~43%; Zhejiang province and Fujian province were big grain gap regions; Hainan province was general grain gap region. In major grain sales regions, changes in grain output, grain ration consumption quantity, indirect grain consumption quantity and urban population proportion had significant impact on the gap in balance between grain production  and demand. Increasing grain yield was beneficial for shrinking the grain gap in major grain sales regions. Population increasing, urbanization level up-grading, and indirect grain consumption increasing from consuming livestock, poultry and aquatic products and soybean oil, etc. could exacerbate the food gap. Therefore, this paper put forward relevant measures to facilitate food security status of major grain sales regions, hoping to provide references for realizing China’s food security strategy under the new situation.

Key words: major grain sales region, food security, gap in balance between grain supply and demand, grain consumption, influence factor