山东省畜牧业碳排放演变特征及驱动因素分析

doi:10.13304/j.nykjdb.2024.0827

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

运用生命周期评价法和广义迪氏分解法，对山东省畜牧业碳排放的演变特征以及驱动因素进行分析。结果表明，2011—2022年山东省畜牧业碳排放总量由6 360.91万 t下降到5 576.21万 t，年均增长率为-1.19%。其中肠道发酵和粪便管理系统碳排放量的占比逐渐减少，2019年饲料消耗系统的占比超过胃肠发酵与粪便管理系统，成为最主要的碳排放来源。从畜种来看，禽碳排放占比最大，且其碳排放总量呈增长趋势。从时空序列来看，临沂、潍坊、菏泽的碳排放总量较大，泰安、青岛和济宁的碳排放强度较低。综合驱动因素来看，机械总动力消耗碳强度及经济产出碳强度是主要的促降因素，机械总动力消耗强度的促降效应相对较低。综上表明，调整产业结构、提高畜禽生产效率和效益是未来畜牧业提高资源利用效率的有效途径；在引进先进低碳畜牧业机械设备的同时，提高畜牧机械利用效率是未来山东省畜牧业绿色发展的重要方向。

关键词: 畜牧业, 碳排放, 生命周期评价法, 广义迪氏指数, 驱动因素

Abstract:

The evolution characteristics and driving factors of carbon emissions from animal husbandry in Shandong province were analyzed by using the life-cycle assessment method and the generalized divisia index method. The results showed that the total carbon emissions from animal husbandry in Shandong province decreased from 6 360.91×10⁴ t in 2011 to 5 576.21×10⁴ t in 2022， with an average annual growth rate of -1.19%. The proportion of carbon emissions from enteric fermentation and manure management gradually decreased， and the proportion of feed consumption system in 2019 exceeded that of gastrointestinal fermentation and manure management system， and becomed the most important source of carbon emissions. In terms of livestock species， poultry carbon emissions accounted for the largest share， and the total amount of poultry carbon emissions showed growing trend. From the perspective of spatial and temporal series， Linyi， Weifang and Heze had larger total carbon emissions， while Tai’an， Qingdao and Jining had lower carbon intensity. In terms of comprehensive driving factors， the carbon intensity of total mechanical power consumption and carbon intensity of economic output were the main contributing factors， and the contributing effect of the intensity of total mechanical power consumption was relatively low. Above results showed that adjusting the industrial structure and improving the efficiency and effectiveness of livestock and poultry production were effective way to improve the resource utilization efficiency of the livestock industry in the future， and improving the efficiency of livestock machinery while introducing advanced and low-carbon livestock machinery and equipment was an important direction for the green development of the animal husbandry industry in Shandong province in the future.

Key words: animal husbandry, carbon emission, life-cycle assessment, generalized divisia index method, driving factor

中图分类号:

F326.3

王潇, 辛翔飞, 闫琰, 王济民. 山东省畜牧业碳排放演变特征及驱动因素分析[J]. 中国农业科技导报, 2025, 27(8): 155-167.

Xiao WANG, Xiangfei XIN, Yan YAN, Jimin WANG. Analysis of Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors of Carbon Emission from Animal Husbandry in Shandong Province[J]. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, 2025, 27(8): 155-167.

图/表 10

图1 山东省畜牧业碳排放系统注：粪便堆积和厌氧降解过程中也会产生CO2，但在方法学中不计入。

Fig. 1 Carbon emission system of animal husbandry in Shandong provinceNote： CO2 is also produced during manure accumulation and anaerobic degradation， but is not included in the methodology.

表1 各物种胃肠发酵及粪便管理碳排放系数

Table 1 Carbon emission coefficient of enteric fermentation and manure management of each animal species

物种 Species	肠道发酵 Enteric fermentation	粪便管理 Manure management		参考来源 Reference source
物种 Species	CH₄	CH₄	N₂O	参考来源 Reference source
猪Swine	1.000	3.50	0.53	［13］
禽Poultry	0.000	0.02	0.02	［13］
牛Cattle	55.000	2.00	1.34	［28］
羊Sheep	5.000	0.16	0.33	［13］
兔Rabbit	0.254	0.08	0.02	［13］

表2 生命周期评价法各系统边界的碳排放系数

Table 2 Carbon emission coefficient of each system by the life cycle assessment method

系统边界 System boundary	符号 Sign	指标 Index	值 Value	参考来源 Reference source
饲料粮种植消耗 Feed and grain planting consumption	e_j1	小麦碳排放系数 Carbon emission coefficient of wheat	1.22	［16］
饲料粮种植消耗 Feed and grain planting consumption	e_j1	玉米碳排放系数 Carbon emission coefficient of corn	1.5
饲料粮加工消耗 Feed and grain processing consumption	e_j2	小麦碳排放系数 Carbon emission coefficient of wheat	0.031 9
		玉米碳排放系数 Carbon emission coefficient of corn	0.010 2
		大豆碳排放系数 Carbon emission coefficient of soybean	0.101 3
畜禽饲养消耗 Livestock and poultry feeding consumption	price_e	畜禽养殖用电单价/（元·kW^-1·h^-1）Unit price of livestock and poultry breeding electricity consumption/（yuan·kW^-1·h^-1）	0.427 5	［17］
	price_c	畜禽养殖用煤单价/（元·t^-1） Unit price of coal used for livestock and poultry breeding/（yuan·t^-1）	800	［17］
	e_f	电能消耗碳排放系数 Carbon emission coefficient of electricity consumption/（t·MW^-1·t^-1）	0.971 4	［29］
	e_c	煤炭消耗碳排放系数 Carbon emission coefficient of coal consumption	1.98	［17］
畜禽加工消耗 Consumption of livestock and poultry processing	MJ _u	牛肉屠宰加工耗能系数 Energy consumption coefficient of beef slaughtering and processing/（MJ·kg^-1）	4.37	［16］
		猪肉屠宰加工耗能系数 Energy consumption coefficient of pork slaughtering and processing/（MJ·kg^-1）	3.76
		羊肉屠宰加工耗能系数 Energy consumption coefficient of mutton slaughtering and processing/（MJ·kg^-1）	10.4
		禽肉屠宰加工耗能系数 Energy consumption coefficient of poultry slaughtering and processing/（MJ·kg^-1）	2.59
		禽蛋屠宰加工耗能系数Energy consumption coefficient of poultry egg slaughtering and processing/（MJ·kg^-1）	8.16

表2 生命周期评价法各系统边界的碳排放系数

Table 2 Carbon emission coefficient of each system by the life cycle assessment method

系统边界 System boundary	符号 Sign	指标 Index	值 Value	参考来源 Reference source
饲料粮种植消耗 Feed and grain planting consumption	e_j1	小麦碳排放系数 Carbon emission coefficient of wheat	1.22	［16］
饲料粮种植消耗 Feed and grain planting consumption	e_j1	玉米碳排放系数 Carbon emission coefficient of corn	1.5
饲料粮加工消耗 Feed and grain processing consumption	e_j2	小麦碳排放系数 Carbon emission coefficient of wheat	0.031 9
		玉米碳排放系数 Carbon emission coefficient of corn	0.010 2
		大豆碳排放系数 Carbon emission coefficient of soybean	0.101 3
畜禽饲养消耗 Livestock and poultry feeding consumption	price_e	畜禽养殖用电单价/（元·kW^-1·h^-1）Unit price of livestock and poultry breeding electricity consumption/（yuan·kW^-1·h^-1）	0.427 5	［17］
	price_c	畜禽养殖用煤单价/（元·t^-1） Unit price of coal used for livestock and poultry breeding/（yuan·t^-1）	800	［17］
	e_f	电能消耗碳排放系数 Carbon emission coefficient of electricity consumption/（t·MW^-1·t^-1）	0.971 4	［29］
	e_c	煤炭消耗碳排放系数 Carbon emission coefficient of coal consumption	1.98	［17］
畜禽加工消耗 Consumption of livestock and poultry processing	MJ _u	牛肉屠宰加工耗能系数 Energy consumption coefficient of beef slaughtering and processing/（MJ·kg^-1）	4.37	［16］
		猪肉屠宰加工耗能系数 Energy consumption coefficient of pork slaughtering and processing/（MJ·kg^-1）	3.76
		羊肉屠宰加工耗能系数 Energy consumption coefficient of mutton slaughtering and processing/（MJ·kg^-1）	10.4
		禽肉屠宰加工耗能系数 Energy consumption coefficient of poultry slaughtering and processing/（MJ·kg^-1）	2.59
		禽蛋屠宰加工耗能系数Energy consumption coefficient of poultry egg slaughtering and processing/（MJ·kg^-1）	8.16

表2 生命周期评价法各系统边界的碳排放系数 (续表Continued)

Table 2 Carbon emission coefficient of each system by the life cycle assessment method

系统边界

System boundary

符号

Sign

指标

Index

值

Value

参考来源

Reference source

畜禽加工消耗

Consumption of livestock and poultry processing

MJ _u

牛奶屠宰加工耗能系数

Energy consumption coefficient of milk slaughtering and processing/（MJ·kg^-1）

1.12

［16］

单位电热值

Unit electric heat value

3.6

其他转换系数

Other conversion coefficients

G W H C H 4

CH₄全球升温潜能值

CH₄ global warming potential value

［14］

G W H N 2 O

N₂O全球升温潜能值

N₂O global warming potential value

310

表2 生命周期评价法各系统边界的碳排放系数 (续表Continued)

Table 2 Carbon emission coefficient of each system by the life cycle assessment method

系统边界

System boundary

符号

Sign

指标

Index

值

Value

参考来源

Reference source

畜禽加工消耗

Consumption of livestock and poultry processing

MJ _u

牛奶屠宰加工耗能系数

Energy consumption coefficient of milk slaughtering and processing/（MJ·kg^-1）

1.12

［16］

单位电热值

Unit electric heat value

3.6

其他转换系数

Other conversion coefficients

G W H C H 4

CH₄全球升温潜能值

CH₄ global warming potential value

［14］

G W H N 2 O

N₂O全球升温潜能值

N₂O global warming potential value

310

图2 2011—2022年山东省碳排放总量注：由于饲料加工环节和畜禽养殖耗能环节的碳排放量相对较少，相对于其他碳排放源可以忽略不计，因此在图中未列出。

Fig. 2 Total carbon emission of Shandong province from 2011 to 2022Note： Because the carbon emissions of feed processing and livestock and poultry breeding are relatively small and negligible from other carbon emission sources， they are not listed in the figure.

图3 2011—2022年山东省各畜牧品种碳排放总量注：由于兔碳排放量相对较少，相对于其他物种可以忽略不计，因此在图中未列出。

Fig. 3 Total carbon emission of all livestock breeds in Shandong province from 2011 to 2022Note： Because rabbits have carbon emissions of rabit is relatively low， and is it negligible to other livestock species， it is not listed in the figure.

图4 山东省畜牧业碳排放空间分布注：基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站GS（2024）1158号标准地图绘制，底图无修改。

Fig. 4 Spatial distribution diagram of carbon emission from animal husbandry in Shandong provinceNote：Based on the standard map GS（2024）1158 of the National Resources Ministry’s standard map service website， the base map has not been modified.

图5 山东省畜牧业碳排放强度空间分布注：基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站GS（2024）1158号标准地图绘制，底图无修改。

Fig. 5 Spatial distribution diagram of carbon emission intensity in animal husbandry in Shandong provinceNote：Based on the standard map GS（2024）1158 of the National Resources Ministry’s standard map service website， the base map has not been modified.

表3 2012—2022年山东省畜牧业碳排放驱动因素的贡献率

Table 3 Contribution rate of carbon emission drivers of animal husbandry in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2022

年份 Year	经济发展水平 Level of economic development	经济产出碳强度 Carbon intensity of economic output	机械总动力水平 Total prime mover power capacity	机械总动力消耗碳强度 Carbon intensity per unit of prime Mover power consumption	人口规模 Population size	人均碳排放量 Per capita carbon intensity	人均产值 Per capita output	机械总动力消耗强度 Prime mover power consumption intensity
2012	0.009 0	0.000 7	0.033 5	-0.022 7	0.001 5	0.008 3	-0.000 2	-0.001 0
2013	0.011 7	-0.013 9	0.041 6	-0.041 3	0.001 3	-0.003 3	-0.000 3	-0.001 5
2014	0.003 2	-0.007 8	0.004 5	-0.009 1	0.002 1	-0.006 8	0.000 0	0.000 0
2015	0.007 4	-0.017 1	0.004 4	-0.014 3	0.001 9	-0.011 8	0.000 0	0.000 0
2016	0.014 1	-0.025 0	0.006 0	-0.017 4	0.003 5	-0.015 0	-0.000 1	-0.000 1
2017	-0.010 0	0.008 8	0.006 8	-0.008 2	0.002 0	-0.003 5	-0.000 1	-0.000 4
2018	-0.016 7	0.003 6	0.008 0	-0.021 1	0.001 4	-0.014 9	-0.000 4	-0.000 9
2019	-0.012 8	0.008 4	0.020 6	-0.024 5	0.001 0	-0.006 0	-0.000 1	-0.001 7
2020	0.011 7	-0.042 0	0.0158	-0.045 9	0.001 8	-0.032 7	-0.000 2	0.000 0
2021	0.038 3	-0.015 1	0.055 6	-0.031 4	0.000 2	0.023 2	-0.002 6	-0.000 7
2022	0.005 6	-0.000 1	0.013 0	-0.007 2	-0.000 2	0.005 8	-0.000 1	-0.000 1

图6 2012—2022年山东省碳排放影响因素的累积贡献值注：累积贡献值以2011年为基期，将各因素对山东省畜牧业碳排放的贡献值逐年累加。

Fig. 6 Cumulative contribution values of the factors affecting carbon emissions in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2022Note： The cumulative contribution value is based on 2011， and the contribution value of each factor to the carbon emission of animal husbandry in Shandong province is added up year by year.

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