基于有效积温的玉米株高与茎粗动态发育及其积温模型研究

doi:10.13304/j.nykjdb.2024.0148

中国农业科技导报 ›› 2025, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (8): 187-201.DOI: 10.13304/j.nykjdb.2024.0148

• 生物制造资源生态 • 上一篇

基于有效积温的玉米株高与茎粗动态发育及其积温模型研究

许海涛¹(), 马红珍¹(), 王文文², 范文祥³, 许波¹, 张军刚¹, 郭海斌¹, 王友华¹

^1.驻马店市农业科学院，河南省玉米产业技术体系驻马店综合试验站，河南驻马店 463000
^2.平舆县农业科学研究所，河南驻马店 463400
^3.北京联创种业有限公司，北京 100081

收稿日期:2024-03-01 接受日期:2024-07-12 出版日期:2025-08-15 发布日期:2025-08-26
通讯作者: 马红珍
作者简介:许海涛 E-mail： xuht0101@126.com；
基金资助:
河南省科技攻关项目(242102111168);河南省玉米产业技术体系驻马店综合试验站项目(HARS-23-02-Z6);驻马店市重大科技专项(ZMDSZDZX2023005)

Research on Dynamic Development and Accumulated Temperature Model of Maize Plant Height and Stem Diameter Based on Effective Accumulated Temperature

Haitao XU¹(), Hongzhen MA¹(), Wenwen WANG², Wenxiang FAN³, Bo XU¹, Jungang ZHANG¹, Haibin GUO¹, Youhua WANG¹

^1.Zhumadian Comprehensive Experimental Station of Henan Maize Industrial Technology System，Zhumadian Academy of Agricultral Sciences，Henan Zhumadian 463000，China
^2.Pingyu County Agricultural Science Research Institute，Henan Zhumadian 463400，China
^3.Beijing Lianchuang Seed Industry Corporation，Ltd. ，Beijing 100081，China

Received:2024-03-01 Accepted:2024-07-12 Online:2025-08-15 Published:2025-08-26
Contact: Hongzhen MA

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探究基于有效积温的玉米株高与茎粗的动态发育及其积温模型和特征参数，以驻玉216、裕丰303、中科玉505、郑单958为试验材料，在2023年通过春、夏播进行大田试验，采用Logistic模型拟合玉米株高与茎粗基于有效积温的动态发育方程，利用其特征参数分析玉米动态发育特征。结果表明，春、夏播玉米株高、茎粗与有效积温呈极显著相关，相关系数春播达0.96以上，夏播达0.94以上，随有效积温呈“S”型单向递增动态变化趋势。以有效积温为自变量建立的玉米株高与茎粗Logistic模型具有较好生物学意义，株高方程的决定系数春播在0.982 7~0.996 8、夏播在0.982 8~0.993 5；茎粗方程的决定系数春播在0.989 4~0.999 0、夏播在0.987 7~0.998 7；相关系数分别在0.991 3~0.998 4和0.993 8~0.999 5；标准化均方根误差株高春播在3.55%~10.71%、夏播在6.96%~10.30%，茎粗春播在14.93%~26.84%、夏播在5.93%~13.75%，模拟曲线与实测值拟合度较高，达到良好预测效果。株高最大生长速率所需有效积温、进入快增期所需有效积温、进入缓增期所需有效积温春播表现为中科玉505、裕丰303>郑单958、驻玉216，夏播表现为裕丰303>驻玉216>中科玉505>郑单958；茎粗最大生长速率所需有效积温春播4个品种间差异不显著，夏播表现为驻玉216>郑单958、裕丰303>中科玉505。综上可知，Logistic模型可较好地模拟和预测基于有效积温的玉米株高与茎粗动态发育，能够预估玉米长势，具有较强的利用价值。研究结果为利用有效积温预测玉米株高与茎粗动态发育提供理论依据。

关键词: 玉米, 株高, 茎粗, 有效积温, Logistic模型

Abstract:

In order to explore the dynamic development of maize plant height and stem diameter and its accumulated temperature model and characteristic parameters based on effective accumulated temperature， field experiments were conducted in spring and summer sowing in 2023 using Zhuyu216（ZY216）， Yufeng303（YF303）， Zhongkeyu505（ZKY505） and Zhengdan958（ZD958） as experimental materials. Logistic model was used to fit the dynamic development equations of maize plant height and stem diameter based on effective accumulated temperature， and their characteristic parameters were used to analyze the dynamic development characteristics of maize. The results showed that there was a highly significant correlation between the plant height and stem diameter of spring and summer sowing maize and the effective accumulated temperature， with a correlation coefficient of over 0.96 for spring sowing and above 0.94 for summer sowing， showing an S-shaped unidirectional increasing dynamic trend with the effective accumulated temperature. The logistic model for maize plant height and stem diameter established with effective accumulated temperature as the independent variable had the good biological significance. The determination coefficient of the plant height equation were 0.982 7~0.996 8 for spring sowing and 0.982 8~0.993 5 for summer sowing， the determination coefficient of the stem diameter equation were 0.989 4~0.999 0 for spring sowing and 0.987 7~0.998 7 for summer sowing， the correlation coefficients were 0.991 3~0.998 4 and 0.993 8~0.999 5， respectively； the standardized root mean square errors of plant height were 3.55%～10.71% for spring sowing and 6.96%～10.30% for summer sowing， and stem diameter were 14.93%～26.84% for in spring sowing and 5.93%～13.75% in summer sowing， the simulation curve had a high fitting degree with the measured values， achieving a good predictive effect level. The effective accumulated temperature required of plant height for entering the maximum growth rate， entering the rapid increase period， and entering the enter the slow increase period were shown as follows： in spring sowing of ZKY505，YF303>ZD958，ZY216， while in summer sowing of YF303>ZY216>ZKY505>ZD958. There was no significant difference in the effective accumulated temperature required for the maximum stem diameter growth rate among the 4 varieties sown in spring， and the results of summer sowing were ZY216>ZD958，YF303>ZKY505. On the whole，the logistic model could simulate and predict the dynamic development of maize plant height and stem diameter based on effective accumulated temperature， and could predict maize growth， which had strong utilization value. Above results provided theoretical basis for predicting dynamic development of maize plant height and stem diameter by effective accumulated temperature.

Key words: maize, plant height, stem diameter, effective accumulated temperature, Logistic model

中图分类号:

S143.1

许海涛, 马红珍, 王文文, 范文祥, 许波, 张军刚, 郭海斌, 王友华. 基于有效积温的玉米株高与茎粗动态发育及其积温模型研究[J]. 中国农业科技导报, 2025, 27(8): 187-201.

Haitao XU, Hongzhen MA, Wenwen WANG, Wenxiang FAN, Bo XU, Jungang ZHANG, Haibin GUO, Youhua WANG. Research on Dynamic Development and Accumulated Temperature Model of Maize Plant Height and Stem Diameter Based on Effective Accumulated Temperature[J]. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, 2025, 27(8): 187-201.

图/表 12

图1 春、夏播玉米生长发育期间气温和降雨量

Fig. 1 Temperature and precipitation during the growth and development period of spring and summer sowing maize

图2 玉米有效积温与株高、茎粗的相关性注：**表示在P<0.01水平显著相关。

Fig. 2 Correlations between effective accumulated temperature and plant height and stem diameterNote：** indicates significant correlation at P<0.01 level.

图3 玉米株高随有效积温的动态变化注：同一折线上不同小写字母表示差异在P<0.05水平显著。

Fig. 3 Dynamic changes of maize plant height with effective accumulated temperatureNote：Different lowercase letters on the same line indicate significant differences at P<0.05 level.

表1 基于有效积温的玉米株高动态方程参数

Table 1 Dynamic equation parameters of maize plant height based on effective accumulated temperature

播季 Sowing season	品种 Variety	参数Parameter			决定系数 R²	剩余平方和 SSE	F值 F value	检验概率Probability Pr>F
播季 Sowing season	品种 Variety	a	b	k	决定系数 R²	剩余平方和 SSE	F值 F value	检验概率Probability Pr>F
春播 Spring sowing	驻玉216 ZY216	233.24	42.09	0.006 9	0.982 7	99 139.19	450.11	<0.000 1
	裕丰303 YF303	239.66	59.87	0.006 8	0.994 2	40 063.98	1 135.74	<0.000 1
	中科玉505 ZKY505	248.26	67.96	0.006 7	0.994 7	66 035.39	1 074.18	<0.000 1
	郑单958 ZD958	237.79	39.07	0.006 6	0.996 8	66 084.56	2 576.78	<0.000 1
夏播 Summer sowing	驻玉216 ZY216	201.64	45.98	0.006 1	0.993 5	102 607.46	948.12	<0.000 1
	裕丰303 YF303	231.29	55.89	0.006 2	0.992 8	143 843.34	801.41	<0.000 1
	中科玉505 ZKY505	262.36	56.53	0.006 7	0.984 1	108 593.54	371.64	<0.000 1
	郑单958 ZD958	256.71	52.12	0.006 8	0.982 8	107 427.38	390.54	<0.000 1

图4 基于有效积温的玉米株高实测值与模拟值检验评估A：春播；B：夏播

Fig. 4 Verification and evaluation of measured and simulated values of maize plant height based on effective accumulated temperatureA：Spring sowing；B：Summer sowing

图5 玉米株高实测值与模拟曲线A：春播；B：夏播

Fig. 5 Measured values and simulated curves of plant height of maizeA：Spring sowing；B：Summer sowing

图6 基于有效积温的玉米株高发育动态的Logistic模型特征参数A：春播；B：夏播。V1—最大生长速率；V2－快增期平均生长速率。T1—最大生长速率所需有效积温；T2－进入快增期所需有效积温；T3－进入缓增期所需有效积温；同一指标中不同小写字母表示差异在P<0.05水平显著

Fig. 6 Logistic model characteristic parameters of maize plant height development dynamics based on effective accumulated temperatureA：Spring sowing；B：Summer sowing. V1 —The maximum growth rate；V2 — Average growth rate during the rapid growth period. T1— Accumulated temperature required for the maximum growth rate； T2 — Accumulated temperature required to enter the rapid increase period； T3 — Accumulated temperature required to enter the slow increase period； Different lowercase letters of same index indicate significant differences at P<0.05 level

图7 玉米茎粗随有效积温的动态变化注：同一折线上不同小写字母表示差异在P<0.05水平显著。

Fig. 7 Dynamic changes of maize stem diameter with effective accumulated temperatureNote：Different lowercase letters on the same line indicate significant differences at P<0.05 level.

表2 基于有效积温的玉米茎粗动态方程参数

Table 2 Dynamic equation parameters of maize stem diameter based on effective accumulated temperature

播季 Sowing season	品种 Variety	参数Parameter			决定系数R²	剩余平方和 SSE	F值 F value	检验概率Probability Pr>F
播季 Sowing season	品种 Variety	a	b	k	决定系数R²	剩余平方和 SSE	F值 F value	检验概率Probability Pr>F
春播 Spring sowing	驻玉216 ZY216	24.08	21.10	0.007 6	0.999 0	299 652.06	9 174.60	<0.000 1
	裕丰303 YF303	24.72	36.16	0.008 8	0.989 4	21 764.73	1 422.21	<0.000 1
	中科玉505 ZKY505	25.16	24.25	0.007 7	0.996 1	27 357.22	2 428.83	<0.000 1
	郑单958 ZD958	25.51	23.43	0.007 9	0.996 8	39 146.03	2 924.14	<0.000 1
夏播 Summer sowing	驻玉216 ZY216	23.96	16.05	0.005 6	0.997 1	37 941.46	3 567.60	<0.000 1
	裕丰303 YF303	24.48	19.68	0.006 7	0.998 7	65 419.44	6 376.94	<0.000 1
	中科玉505 ZKY505	26.79	32.46	0.008 3	0.987 7	4 564.01	1 378.22	<0.000 1
	郑单958 ZD958	26.73	24.48	0.007 0	0.997 5	148 894.51	8 834.64	<0.0001

图8 基于有效积温的玉米茎粗实测值与模拟值检验评估A：春播；B：夏播

Fig. 8 Verification and evaluation of the measured and simulated values of maize stem diameter based on effective accumulated temperatureA：Spring sowing；B：Summer sowing

图9 玉米茎粗实测值与模拟曲线A：春播；B：夏播

Fig. 9 Measured values and simulated curves of stem diameter of maizeA：Spring sowing；B：Summer sowing

图10 基于有效积温的春、夏播玉米茎粗动态变化的Logistic模型特征参数A：春播；B：夏播。V1—最大生长速率；V2－快增期平均生长速率。T1—最大生长速率所需有效积温；T2－进入快增期所需有效积温；T3－进入缓增期所需有效积温；同一指标中不同小写字母表示差异在P<0.05水平显著

Fig. 10 Logistic model characteristic parameters of maize stem diameter dynamic changes based on effective accumulated temperatureA：Spring sowing；B：Summer sowing. V1 —The maximum growth rate；V2 — Average growth rate during the rapid growth period. T1— Accumulated temperature required for the maximum growth rate； T2 — Accumulated temperature required to enter the rapid increase period； T3 — Accumulated temperature required to enter the slow increase period； Different lowercase letters of same index indicate significant differences at P<0.05 level

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基于有效积温的玉米株高与茎粗动态发育及其积温模型研究

Research on Dynamic Development and Accumulated Temperature Model of Maize Plant Height and Stem Diameter Based on Effective Accumulated Temperature

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