关键词: 大豆, 生物育种, 贸易依存度, 局部均衡模型

Abstract:

China is one of the major importers of soybean in the world， with a high dependency on foreign sources exceeding， making the risks in soybean foreign trade increasingly prominent. The experiences of the United States， Brazil， and Argentina have demonstrated that the application of genetically modified soybeans and their supporting technologies effectively reduces variable costs， and increased the total factor productivity of soybeans. This paper analyzed the risks faced by China’s soybean industry， elaborated on the role of seed industry in industrial development，and simulated the impact of the industrial application of bio-breeding technology on the domestic soybean and trade based on a partial equilibrium model， in order to seeking a available path to reduce the risk of China’s soybean trade. The partial equilibrium simulation showed that promoting the industrialization of soybean bio-breeding could improve the total factor productivity of soybean production， thereby enhancing the market competitiveness of domestic soybeans. When the supply of domestic soybeans increased， the import quantity would also decrease accordingly， and the greater the substitution elasticity， the greater the reduction in import quantity， which could effectively alleviate the pressure of China’s dependence on foreign soybeans.

Key words: soybean, biological breeding, trade dependency, partial equilibrium