我国玉米生产与消费时空格局演变及匹配性分析

doi:10.13304/j.nykjdb.2023.0305

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

玉米是我国第一大粮食作物，对我国粮食安全影响深远。依据重心模型，运用地理信息系统（geographic information system，GIS）测算了1999—2022年我国玉米生产重心与消费重心的移动方向、距离、速度等变化特征，利用耦合模型分析玉米生产与消费的空间匹配性，并结合自然、经济、政治等因素，研究其变动原因。结果表明，1999—2022年我国玉米生产重心整体呈现从西南-东北移动的特点，共移动了148.55 km，平均移动速度为6.46 km·a^-1；玉米消费重心总体呈现从西南-东北-东南-西南-东北环形变动的特点，阶段性特征明显；生产与消费重心的耦合距离呈先升高后降低的总体特点，但增幅远大于降幅。耦合距离由471.02 km（1999年）变为513.02 km（2022年），其中2013年二者的重心耦合距离达最大值，为557.91 km。2020年以来，玉米生产与消费的耦合距离又出现增加趋势，空间匹配性再度下降，为新时代粮食安全带来了挑战。因此，提出优化玉米区域利益协调机制、构建多主体利益联结机制和支持政策体系、优化玉米区域生产与消费空间格局、实施区域差异性的粮食政策等政策建议。

关键词: 玉米, 生产时空格局, 消费时空格局, 匹配性分析

Abstract:

Maize is the largest food crop in China， which has a profound impact on China’s food security. Based on the gravity center model， the moving direction， distance and moving speed of the center of gravity of maize production and consumption in China from 1999 to 2022 were calculated using geographic information system （GIS）， and the spatial matching of production and consumption were analyzed using the coupling model. Combined with natural， economic， political and other factors， the reasons for the change were studied. The results showed that the center of gravity of maize production in China moved from southwest to northeast from 1999 to 2022， moving 148.55 km to the northeast， with an average moving speed of 6.46 km·a^-1. The center of gravity of corn consumption showed the general characteristics of circular change from southwest to northeast to southeast to southwest to northeast， and the stage characteristics were obvious. The coupling distance between the center of gravity of production and consumption showed the overall characteristics of rising first and then decreasing， but the increase was far greater than the decrease. The coupling distance changed from 471.02 km （1999） to 513.02 km （2022）， and the center of gravity coupling distance reached the maximum value of 557.91 km in 2013. Since 2020， the coupling distance between maize production and consumption had increased again， and the spatial matching had declined again， which had brought challenges to food security in the new era. Therefore， some suggestions were proposed， such as optimizing the corn regional interest coordination mechanism， building a multi-agent interest linkage mechanism and support policy system， optimizing the spatial pattern of maize regional production and consumption， and implementing regionally differentiated food policies.

Key words: maize, production space-time pattern, consumption space-time pattern, matching analysis

中图分类号:

F326.11

曹炎, 杨艳涛, 王国刚. 我国玉米生产与消费时空格局演变及匹配性分析[J]. 中国农业科技导报, 2024, 26(5): 1-10.

Yan CAO, Yantao YANG, Guogang WANG. Spatial-temporal Pattern Evolution and Matching Analysis of Maize Production and Consumption in China[J]. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, 2024, 26(5): 1-10.

图/表 5

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年份 Year	生产重心 Production gravity center		移动距离 Movement distance/km			移动方向 Moving direction
年份 Year	经度 Longitude/（°）	纬度 Latitude/（°）	年际 Interannual	东西向 East-west	南北向 North-south	移动方向 Moving direction
1999	115.34	38.16	—	—	—	—
2000	114.18	37.16	169.55	128.89	110.17	西南Southwest
2001	114.90	37.68	98.92	80.33	57.72	东北Northeast
2002	115.04	38.01	39.79	15.44	36.67	东北Northeast
2003	115.03	38.19	19.42	1.22	19.38	西北Northwest
2004	115.13	38.21	11.28	11.00	2.51	东南Southeast
2005	115.08	38.17	6.59	5.22	4.02	东北Northeast
2006	115.66	38.62	81.14	64.44	49.30	东北Northeast
2007	115.30	38.45	44.30	40.11	18.80	西南Southwest
2008	115.46	38.77	39.75	18.00	35.44	东北Northeast
2009	115.03	38.58	52.69	48.44	20.73	西南Southwest
2010	115.18	38.89	37.70	16.78	33.77	东北Northeast
2011	115.56	39.18	53.35	42.22	32.61	东北Northeast
2012	115.49	39.25	10.25	7.11	7.38	西北Northwest
2013	115.53	39.51	29.69	3.67	29.47	东北Northeast
2014	115.44	39.49	9.97	9.67	2.46	东南Southeast
2015	115.57	39.56	16.41	14.22	8.19	东北Northeast
2016	115.77	39.33	34.64	23.00	25.90	西北Northwest
2017	115.71	39.25	11.02	7.22	8.32	西南Southwest
2018	115.55	39.36	20.92	17.11	12.03	东南Southeast
2019	115.68	39.45	16.79	13.89	9.43	东北Northeast
2020	115.38	39.29	37.44	33.22	17.27	西南Southwest
2021	115.56	39.57	37.04	20.33	30.96	东北Northeast
2022	115.49	39.48	12.64	8.22	9.60	西南Southwest

年份 Year	生产重心 Production gravity center		移动距离 Movement distance/km			移动方向 Moving direction
年份 Year	经度 Longitude/（°）	纬度 Latitude/（°）	年际 Interannual	东西向 East-west	南北向 North-south	移动方向 Moving direction
1999	115.34	38.16	—	—	—	—
2000	114.18	37.16	169.55	128.89	110.17	西南Southwest
2001	114.90	37.68	98.92	80.33	57.72	东北Northeast
2002	115.04	38.01	39.79	15.44	36.67	东北Northeast
2003	115.03	38.19	19.42	1.22	19.38	西北Northwest
2004	115.13	38.21	11.28	11.00	2.51	东南Southeast
2005	115.08	38.17	6.59	5.22	4.02	东北Northeast
2006	115.66	38.62	81.14	64.44	49.30	东北Northeast
2007	115.30	38.45	44.30	40.11	18.80	西南Southwest
2008	115.46	38.77	39.75	18.00	35.44	东北Northeast
2009	115.03	38.58	52.69	48.44	20.73	西南Southwest
2010	115.18	38.89	37.70	16.78	33.77	东北Northeast
2011	115.56	39.18	53.35	42.22	32.61	东北Northeast
2012	115.49	39.25	10.25	7.11	7.38	西北Northwest
2013	115.53	39.51	29.69	3.67	29.47	东北Northeast
2014	115.44	39.49	9.97	9.67	2.46	东南Southeast
2015	115.57	39.56	16.41	14.22	8.19	东北Northeast
2016	115.77	39.33	34.64	23.00	25.90	西北Northwest
2017	115.71	39.25	11.02	7.22	8.32	西南Southwest
2018	115.55	39.36	20.92	17.11	12.03	东南Southeast
2019	115.68	39.45	16.79	13.89	9.43	东北Northeast
2020	115.38	39.29	37.44	33.22	17.27	西南Southwest
2021	115.56	39.57	37.04	20.33	30.96	东北Northeast
2022	115.49	39.48	12.64	8.22	9.60	西南Southwest

年份 Year	生产重心 Consumption gravity center		移动距离 Movement distance/km			移动方向 Moving direction
年份 Year	经度 Longitude/（°）	纬度 Latitude/（°）	年际 Interannual	东西向 East-west	南北向 North-south	移动方向 Moving direction
1999	114.23	34.06	—	—	—	—
2000	114.19	34.20	15.63	4.78	14.88	西北Northwest
2001	114.25	34.32	15.66	6.78	14.12	东北Northeast
2000	114.41	34.50	26.55	17.89	19.62	东北Northeast
2003	114.55	34.66	23.46	15.44	17.66	东北Northeast
2004	114.83	34.98	47.52	30.89	36.11	东北Northeast
2005	114.90	35.11	15.73	8.11	13.48	东北Northeast
2006	114.97	35.20	13.06	7.33	10.81	东北Northeast
2007	115.02	34.79	45.79	6.11	45.38	东南Southeast
2008	115.02	34.53	29.06	0.33	29.06	西南Southwest
2009	115.10	34.56	9.54	8.89	3.47	东北Northeast
2010	115.16	34.56	6.61	6.56	0.82	西北Northwest
2011	115.16	34.39	18.94	0.44	18.93	东南Southeast
2012	114.91	34.25	31.31	27.22	15.47	西南Southwest
2013	114.63	34.07	36.73	31.11	19.53	西南Southwest
2014	114.66	34.30	25.04	3.00	24.86	东北Northeast
2015	114.63	34.35	6.38	2.67	5.80	东南Southeast
2016	114.71	34.36	8.66	8.44	1.91	东北Northeast
2017	114.78	34.38	8.41	8.22	1.77	东北Northeast
2018	114.91	34.56	24.98	14.44	20.38	东北Northeast
2019	114.91	34.79	25.61	0.44	25.61	东南Southeast
2020	114.92	35.05	28.97	0.56	28.97	东北Northeast
2021	114.92	35.01	4.55	0.33	4.53	西北Northwest
2022	114.83	34.91	14.61	9.44	11.14	西南Southwest

年份 Year	生产重心 Consumption gravity center		移动距离 Movement distance/km			移动方向 Moving direction
年份 Year	经度 Longitude/（°）	纬度 Latitude/（°）	年际 Interannual	东西向 East-west	南北向 North-south	移动方向 Moving direction
1999	114.23	34.06	—	—	—	—
2000	114.19	34.20	15.63	4.78	14.88	西北Northwest
2001	114.25	34.32	15.66	6.78	14.12	东北Northeast
2000	114.41	34.50	26.55	17.89	19.62	东北Northeast
2003	114.55	34.66	23.46	15.44	17.66	东北Northeast
2004	114.83	34.98	47.52	30.89	36.11	东北Northeast
2005	114.90	35.11	15.73	8.11	13.48	东北Northeast
2006	114.97	35.20	13.06	7.33	10.81	东北Northeast
2007	115.02	34.79	45.79	6.11	45.38	东南Southeast
2008	115.02	34.53	29.06	0.33	29.06	西南Southwest
2009	115.10	34.56	9.54	8.89	3.47	东北Northeast
2010	115.16	34.56	6.61	6.56	0.82	西北Northwest
2011	115.16	34.39	18.94	0.44	18.93	东南Southeast
2012	114.91	34.25	31.31	27.22	15.47	西南Southwest
2013	114.63	34.07	36.73	31.11	19.53	西南Southwest
2014	114.66	34.30	25.04	3.00	24.86	东北Northeast
2015	114.63	34.35	6.38	2.67	5.80	东南Southeast
2016	114.71	34.36	8.66	8.44	1.91	东北Northeast
2017	114.78	34.38	8.41	8.22	1.77	东北Northeast
2018	114.91	34.56	24.98	14.44	20.38	东北Northeast
2019	114.91	34.79	25.61	0.44	25.61	东南Southeast
2020	114.92	35.05	28.97	0.56	28.97	东北Northeast
2021	114.92	35.01	4.55	0.33	4.53	西北Northwest
2022	114.83	34.91	14.61	9.44	11.14	西南Southwest

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